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Spurious Growth in German Output Data, 1913-1938

Author

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  • Ritschl, Albrecht

Abstract

A substantial body of research agrees that unit wage cost in the industrialized economies increased substantially after World War I. For Germany, the popular industrial output estimates of Hoffmann (1965) are partly based on the assumption of constant wage shares, and show rather high growth of the German inter-war economy relative to 1913. This Paper constructs alternative estimates for the affected metal-working sectors, and finds far lower output levels and growth. The change is strong enough to remove the growth bias also from Hoffmann?s figures of overall industry and the aggregate economy. After correcting for spurious growth in metal-processing industry, Hoffmann?s output estimates are broadly in line with the contemporary output and national income statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ritschl, Albrecht, 2004. "Spurious Growth in German Output Data, 1913-1938," CEPR Discussion Papers 4429, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4429
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    Cited by:

    1. Broadberry, Stephen & Burhop, Carsten, 2008. "Resolving the Anglo-German Industrial Productivity Puzzle, 1895–1935: A Response to Professor Ritschl," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 930-934, September.
    2. Fremdling, Rainer & Jong, Herman de & Timmer, Marcel P., 2007. "Censuses compared. A New Benchmark for British and German Manufacturing 1935/1936," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-90, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    3. Veenstra, Joost, 2015. "Output growth in German manufacturing, 1907–1936. A reinterpretation of time-series evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 38-49.
    4. Rainer Fremdling & Reiner Staeglin, 2014. "Editor's choice Output, national income, and expenditure: an input–output table of Germany in 1936," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 18(4), pages 371-397.
    5. Ritschl, Albrecht, 2008. "The Anglo-German productivity puzzle, 1895-1935: a restatement and a possible resolution," Economic History Working Papers 22309, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    6. Felice, Emanuele & Carreras, Albert, 2012. "When did modernization begin? Italy's industrial growth reconsidered in light of new value-added series, 1911–1951," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 443-460.
    7. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Emanuele Felice & Albert Carreras, 2012. "The roots of success: industrial growth in Italy reconsidered, 1911-1951," UHE Working papers 2012_04, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Departament d'Economia i Història Econòmica, Unitat d'Història Econòmica.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Index of production; Wage cost;

    JEL classification:

    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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