IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v56y2015icp1-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic adjustment under regime change: From social contract to Arab Spring

Author

Listed:
  • Faria, João Ricardo
  • McAdam, Peter

Abstract

Against the backdrop of the Arab–Spring protests, we examine macroeconomic stabilization under regime shift. We model this as a dynamic interaction between a government and a profit-maximizing firm. The former imposes the state of technology, some value of rent extraction, labor-market rigidities and time preference. The firm, conditional on these factors and the optimally-determined inflation rate, sets labor demand. Given its extractive nature, there is a continuous probability of a political regime shift, characterized by a hazard function (we compare state and non state contingent forms). The model is able to rationalize the early growth and developmental gains of many Arab economies and their subsequent reversal, as well as the later stalling of economic reforms. The model provides a novel analysis of the evolution of the Arab economies, the shifting time preferences of policy makers and their interaction with economic reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Faria, João Ricardo & McAdam, Peter, 2015. "Macroeconomic adjustment under regime change: From social contract to Arab Spring," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:56:y:2015:i:c:p:1-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.04.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560615000625
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.04.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jorge Saba Arbache & Andy Dickerson & Francis Green, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Wages in Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 73-96, February.
    2. Malik, Adeel & Awadallah, Bassem, 2013. "The Economics of the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 296-313.
    3. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    4. Gente, Karine & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nourry, Carine, 2015. "External constraints and endogenous growth: Why didn't some countries benefit from capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 223-249.
    5. Cristiano Cantore & Miguel León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2014. "Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours, And Factor Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 108-128, February.
    6. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Polasky, Stephen & de Zeeuw, Aart & Wagener, Florian, 2011. "Optimal management with potential regime shifts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 229-240, September.
    8. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, September.
    9. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
    10. Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2008. "On the Salience of Ethnic Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2185-2202, December.
    11. Alesina, Alberto & Devleeschauwer, Arnaud & Easterly, William & Kurlat, Sergio & Wacziarg, Romain, 2003. "Fractionalization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 155-194, June.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/269 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Cambell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2008. "Electoral Uncertainty and the Deficit Bias in a New Keynesian Economy," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0803, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    14. James A. Robinson & Daron Acemoglu, 2000. "Political Losers as a Barrier to Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 126-130, May.
    15. Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
    16. Tarik M. Yousef, 2004. "Development, Growth and Policy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa since 1950," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 91-115, Summer.
    17. Dani Rodrik, 2014. "When Ideas Trump Interests: Preferences, Worldviews, and Policy Innovations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 189-208, Winter.
    18. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    19. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
    20. Carlos Pestana Barros & Bruno Damásio & João Ricardo Faria, 2014. "Reverse FDI in Europe: An Analysis of Angola's FDI in Portugal," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 160-171, March.
    21. World Bank, 2004. "Unlocking the Employment Potential in the Middle East and North Africa : Toward a New Social Contract," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15011.
    22. Amin, Magdi & Assaad, Ragui & al-Baharna, Nazar & Dervis, Kemal & Desai, Raj M. & Dhillon, Navtej S. & Galal, Ahmed & Ghanem, Hafez & Graham, Carol & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2012. "After the Spring: Economic Transitions in the Arab World," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199924929.
    23. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
    24. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1959. "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 69-105, March.
    25. Simon Wren-Lewis & Campbell Leith, 2009. "Electoral Uncertainty, the Deficit Bias and the Electoral Cycle in a New Keynesian Economy," Economics Series Working Papers 460, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    26. Mario Gilli, 2012. "A Simple Model Of Repression And Revolt In Autocracies Applied To The Arab Spring," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(04), pages 1-29.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mujtaba Kayani, Ghulam & Saeed, Abubakr & Riaz, Hammad & Ali, Ashiq, 2023. "Political power shift in host markets and firm asset retrenchment: Evidence from Chinese MNCs," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. Elfeituri, Hatem, 2022. "Banking stability, institutional quality, market concentration, competition and political conflict in MENA," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Bitar, Mohammad & Hassan, M. Kabir & Walker, Thomas, 2017. "Political systems and the financial soundness of Islamic banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 18-44.
    4. Bournakis, Ioannis & Rizov, Marian & Christopoulos, Dimitris, 2023. "Revisiting the effect of institutions on the economic performance of SSA countries: Do legal origins matter in the context of ethnic heterogeneity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Arayssi, Mahmoud & Fakih, Ali, 2017. "Finance–growth nexus in a changing political region: How important was the Arab Spring?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 106-123.
    6. Jain, Sanjay & Majumdar, Sumon, 2016. "State capacity, redistributive compensation and the political economy of economic policy reform," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 462-473.
    7. Herrala, Risto & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2016. "Capital accumulation in a politically unstable region," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-15.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joao Ricardo Faria & Peter McAdam, 2013. "From Social Contract to Arab Spring: Macroeconomic Adjustment under Regime Change," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0813, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    2. Roland Hodler, 2018. "The Political Economics Of The Arab Spring," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 821-836, April.
    3. Rougier, Eric, 2016. "“Fire in Cairo”: Authoritarian–Redistributive Social Contracts, Structural Change, and the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 148-171.
    4. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & McAdam, Peter, 2019. "Efficiency, Inefficiency, And The Mena Frontier," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 489-521, March.
    5. Richard Bluhm & Adam Szirmai, 2011. "Institutions, Inequality and Growth: A review of theory and evidence on the institutional determinants of growth and inequality," Papers inwopa634, Innocenti Working Papers.
    6. Jung, Florian & Sunde, Uwe, 2014. "Income, inequality, and the stability of democracy — Another look at the Lipset hypothesis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 52-74.
    7. Bougharriou, Nouha & Benayed, Walid & Gabsi, Foued Badr, 2019. "The democracy and economic growth nexus: Do FDI and government spending matter? Evidence from the Arab world," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-29.
    8. Stephen L. Parente & Luis Felipe Sáenz & Anna Seim, 2022. "Income, education and democracy," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 193-233, June.
    9. Papaioannou, Elias & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2008. "Economic and social factors driving the third wave of democratization," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 365-387, September.
    10. Hayo, Bernd & Voigt, Stefan, 2010. "Determinants of constitutional change: Why do countries change their form of government?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 283-305, September.
    11. Bougharriou, Nouha & Benayed, Walid & Gabsi, Foued Badr, 2022. "Democratic transition and fiscal policy in the Arab world," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    12. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2009. "Democratic Capital: The Nexus of Political and Economic Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 88-126, July.
    13. Andrea Asoni, 2008. "Protection Of Property Rights And Growth As Political Equilibria," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 953-987, December.
    14. José Aixalá & Gema Fabro, 2009. "Economic freedom, civil liberties, political rights and growth: a causality analysis," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 165-178, September.
    15. Daron Acemoglu & Tuomas Pekkarinen & Kjell G. Salvanes & Matti Sarvimäki, 2021. "The Making of Social Democracy: The Economic and Electoral Consequences of Norway’s 1936 Folk School Reform," NBER Working Papers 29095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Gechert, Sebastian & Kolcunova, Dominika, 2019. "Death to the Cobb-Douglas Production Function? A Meta-Analysis of the Capital-Labor Substitution Elasticity," MetaArXiv 6um5g, Center for Open Science.
    17. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Sajjad Faraji Dizaji, 2014. "Political Institutions and Government Spending Behavior in Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201403, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    18. Sami Bibi & Mustapha K. Nabli, 2009. "Income Inequality In The Arab Region: Data And Measurement, Patterns And Trends," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 275-314.
    19. Mwangi Kimenyi & William Shughart, 2010. "The political economy of constitutional choice: a study of the 2005 Kenyan constitutional referendum," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-27, March.
    20. Pies Ingo & Wockenfuß Christof, 2008. "Armutsbekämpfung versus Demokratieförderung: Wie lässt sich der entwicklungspolitische Trade-Off überwinden? / Poverty reduction versus democracy promotion? How to overcome the trade-off in developmen," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 59(1), pages 405-440, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Unemployment; Stabilization; Arab Spring; Transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:56:y:2015:i:c:p:1-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.