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Democratic transition and fiscal policy in the Arab world

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  • Bougharriou, Nouha
  • Benayed, Walid
  • Gabsi, Foued Badr

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between democracy and public debt in the Arab world over the period 2002–2013. The results show strong evidence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between democracy and public debt. This means that democratization is associated with lower debt only when a certain level of democracy is reached. In an attempt to explain these findings, we assume that the effect of democracy on public debt operates mainly through its impact on government spending and government revenue. Our results show that the inverted U-shaped relationship between democracy and public debt stems from the inverted U-shaped democracy-government spending path and the U-shaped democracy-government revenue pattern. This implies that, at the earlier stages of democratization, democracy is associated with an increase in government spending and a decrease in government revenue, which stimulates public debt. However, beyond a certain level of democracy, further democratization reduces government spending and enhances government revenue, leading to lower levels of public debt. Hence, achieving some level of democracy is a key prerequisite to improve the effectiveness of public spending, enhance tax compliance, and thereby control public debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Bougharriou, Nouha & Benayed, Walid & Gabsi, Foued Badr, 2022. "Democratic transition and fiscal policy in the Arab world," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:46:y:2022:i:2:s0939362521000248
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2021.100876
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arab world; Democracy; Government revenue; Government spending; Nonlinearities; Public debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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