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Twin Sons Of Different Mothers: The Long And The Short Of The Twin Deficits Debate

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  • KEVIN GRIER
  • HAICHUN YE

Abstract

Interest in the twin deficits hypothesis fluctuates in tandem with the U.S. current account deficit. Surprisingly though, a statistically robust relationship between budget and trade deficits has been difficult to pin down. We argue that a big part of this difficulty is due to the failure to allow for structural breaks in the series when (either explicitly or implicitly) modeling their time series properties. We show that both series are break stationary (and conditionally heteroskedastic) and argue that while there is no common pattern in the long run, the short‐run dynamics reveal a sizeable and fairly persistent positive relationship between budget deficit shocks and current account deficit shocks. (JEL F41, E6, H6)

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  • Kevin Grier & Haichun Ye, 2009. "Twin Sons Of Different Mothers: The Long And The Short Of The Twin Deficits Debate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 625-638, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:47:y:2009:i:4:p:625-638
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2008.00162.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Manamba Epaphra, 0. "The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Analysis for Tanzania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 2-34, September.
    2. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    3. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fiscal stance, foreign capital inflows and the behavior of current account in the Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 523-549, February.
    4. Gancho Todorov Ganchev, 2010. "The twin deficit hypothesis: the case of Bulgaria," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 357-377.
    5. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Aworinde, Olalekan Bashir & Martin, Christopher, 2015. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit hypothesis in African countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 80-91.
    6. Holmes, Mark J., 2011. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 271-277, September.
    7. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    8. Brian Piper, 2014. "Factor-Specific Productivity," Working Papers 1401, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    9. GREKOU Gahié Lopez, 2021. "Hypothesis of Twin Deficits in Cote d’Ivoire: The Nonlinear Effect Analysis with a Smooth Transition Autoregression Model (STAR)," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 59-73, January.
    10. Rafiq, Sohrab, 2013. "Sources of time-varying trade balance and real exchange rate dynamics in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 117-141.
    11. Afonso, António & Huart, Florence & Tovar Jalles, João & Stanek, Piotr, 2022. "Twin deficits revisited: A role for fiscal institutions?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
    13. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
    14. Bariş Gök & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatik, 2016. "Is There Any Time-Varying Relationship between Fiscal and Trade Deficits in Turkey?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(5), pages 607-616.
    15. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    16. Rafiq, Sohrab, 2010. "Fiscal stance, the current account and the real exchange rate: Some empirical estimates from a time-varying framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 276-290, November.
    17. Mallick, Lingaraj & Behera, Smruti Ranjan & Murthy, R.V. Ramana, 2021. "Does the twin deficit hypothesis exist in India? Empirical evidence from an asymmetric non-linear cointegration approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    18. Ahmad Ahmad & Olalekan Aworinde, 2015. "Structural breaks and twin deficits hypothesis in African countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-35, February.
    19. Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Gök, Barış & Akseki, Utku, 2015. "A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 181-196.
    20. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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