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What drives international equity correlations? Volatility or market direction?

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  • Amira, Khaled
  • Taamouti, Abderrahim
  • Tsafack, Georges

Abstract

We consider impulse response functions to study the impact of both return and volatility on the correlation between international equity markets. Using data on the US (as the reference country), Canada, the UK and France equity indices, empirical evidence shows that without taking into account the effect of return, there is an (asymmetric) effect of volatility on correlation. The volatility seems to have an impact on correlation especially during downturn periods. However, once we introduce the effect of return, the impact of volatility on correlation disappears. These observations suggest that, the relation between volatility and correlation is an association rather than a causality. The strong increase in the correlation is driven by the past of the return and the market direction rather than the volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Amira, Khaled & Taamouti, Abderrahim & Tsafack, Georges, 2011. "What drives international equity correlations? Volatility or market direction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1234-1263, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:6:p:1234-1263
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International equity markets Asymmetric volatility Asymmetric correlation Estimation error Vector autoregressive (VAR) DCC-GARCH Generalized impulse response function Granger causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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