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Measuring aggregate housing wealth: New insights from machine learning ☆

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  • Gallin, Joshua
  • Molloy, Raven
  • Nielsen, Eric
  • Smith, Paul
  • Sommer, Kamila

Abstract

We construct a new measure of aggregate housing wealth for the U.S. based on (1) home-value estimates derived from machine learning algorithms applied to detailed information on property characteristics and recent transaction prices, and (2) Census housing unit counts. According to our new measure, the timing and amplitude of the recent house-price cycle differs materially but plausibly from commonly-used measures, which are based on survey data or repeat-sales price indexes. Thus, our methodology generates estimates that should be of considerable value to researchers and policymakers interested in the dynamics of aggregate housing wealth.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallin, Joshua & Molloy, Raven & Nielsen, Eric & Smith, Paul & Sommer, Kamila, 2021. "Measuring aggregate housing wealth: New insights from machine learning ☆," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:51:y:2021:i:c:s105113772030070x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2020.101734
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    3. Jean-Marc Israel & Bruno Tissot, 2021. "Incorporating micro data into macro policy decision-making," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Micro data for the macro world, volume 53, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. García Ana Laura & González Juan Pedro & Velázquez Jhasua, 2022. "An Approach for Housing Wealth Estimation: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2022-12, Banco de México.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Residential real estate; Consumer economics and finance; Data collection and estimation; Flow of funds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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