IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jhouse/v51y2021ics105113772030070x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring aggregate housing wealth: New insights from machine learning ☆

Author

Listed:
  • Gallin, Joshua
  • Molloy, Raven
  • Nielsen, Eric
  • Smith, Paul
  • Sommer, Kamila

Abstract

We construct a new measure of aggregate housing wealth for the U.S. based on (1) home-value estimates derived from machine learning algorithms applied to detailed information on property characteristics and recent transaction prices, and (2) Census housing unit counts. According to our new measure, the timing and amplitude of the recent house-price cycle differs materially but plausibly from commonly-used measures, which are based on survey data or repeat-sales price indexes. Thus, our methodology generates estimates that should be of considerable value to researchers and policymakers interested in the dynamics of aggregate housing wealth.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallin, Joshua & Molloy, Raven & Nielsen, Eric & Smith, Paul & Sommer, Kamila, 2021. "Measuring aggregate housing wealth: New insights from machine learning ☆," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:51:y:2021:i:c:s105113772030070x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2020.101734
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105113772030070X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jhe.2020.101734?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michelle H. Dreiman & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2004. "Alternative Methods of Increasing the Precision of Weighted Repeat Sales House Prices Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 299-317, May.
    2. Susan Athey & Michael Luca, 2019. "Economists (and Economics) in Tech Companies," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 209-230, Winter.
    3. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren, 2018. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility II: County-Level Estimates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1163-1228.
    4. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jiri Slacalek, 2011. "How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 55-79, February.
    5. Jon Kleinberg & Jens Ludwig & Sendhil Mullainathan & Ziad Obermeyer, 2015. "Prediction Policy Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 491-495, May.
    6. Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.
    7. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
    8. William B. Peterman & Kamila Sommer, 2019. "How Well Did Social Security Mitigate The Effects Of The Great Recession?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1433-1466, August.
    9. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren, 2018. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exposure Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1107-1162.
    10. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 553-609.
    11. Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2014. "The Distribution of Wealth and the MPC: Implications of New European Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 107-111, May.
    12. Goodman, John Jr. & Ittner, John B., 1992. "The accuracy of home owners' estimates of house value," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 339-357, December.
    13. Alice Henriques Volz, 2013. "Are homeowners in denial about their house values? comparing owner perceptions with transaction-based indexes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-79, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Case, Bradford & Pollakowski, Henry O & Wachter, Susan M, 1997. "Frequency of Transaction and House Price Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 173-187, Jan.-Marc.
    15. Edward L. Glaeser & Hyunjin Kim & Michael Luca, 2019. "Nowcasting the Local Economy: Using Yelp Data to Measure Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics, pages 249-273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    17. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Patrick Kline & Emmanuel Saez, 2014. "Where is the land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1553-1623.
    18. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R. & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge, 1986. "Alternative value estimates of owner-occupied housing: Evidence on sample selection bias and systematic errors," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 356-369, November.
    19. Sewon Hur, 2018. "The Lost Generation of the Great Recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 179-202, October.
    20. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Christopher Kurz, 2019. "Improving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources: The Case of Payroll Employment Data," NBER Chapters, in: Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics, pages 147-170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Aditya Aladangady & Shifrah Aron-Dine & Wendy Dunn & Laura Feiveson & Paul Lengermann & Claudia Sahm, 2021. "From Transaction Data to Economic Statistics: Constructing Real-Time, High-Frequency, Geographic Measures of Consumer Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics, pages 115-145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Susan Athey, 2018. "The Impact of Machine Learning on Economics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 507-547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2016. "Estimating Loan-to-Value Distributions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 44(1), pages 41-86, February.
    24. Michael M. Batty & Jesse Bricker & Joseph S. Briggs & Alice Henriques Volz & Elizabeth Ball Holmquist & Susan Hume McIntosh & Kevin B. Moore & Eric R. Nielsen & Sarah Reber & Molly Shatto & Kamila Som, 2019. "Introducing the Distributional Financial Accounts of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-017, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Jeffrey C. Chen & Abe Dunn & Kyle Hood & Alexander Driessen & Andrea Batch, 2019. "Off to the Races: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Alternative Data for Predicting Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics, pages 373-402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Glennon, Dennis & Kiefer, Hua & Mayock, Tom, 2018. "Measurement error in residential property valuation: An application of forecast combination," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-29.
    27. Adam D. Nowak & Patrick S. Smith, 2020. "Quality-Adjusted House Price Indexes," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 339-356, September.
    28. Jesse Bricker & Brian Bucks & Arthur B. Kennickell & Traci L. Mach & Kevin B. Moore, 2011. "Surveying the aftermath of the storm: changes in family finances from 2007 to 2009," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Sendhil Mullainathan & Jann Spiess, 2017. "Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 87-106, Spring.
    30. Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2016. "Editor's Choice Wealth Inequality in the United States since 1913: Evidence from Capitalized Income Tax Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 519-578.
    31. Sewin Chan & Samuel Dastrup & Ingrid Gould Ellen, 2016. "Do Homeowners Mark to Market? A Comparison of Self-Reported and Estimated Market Home Values During the Housing Boom and Bust," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 627-657, July.
    32. Morris A. Davis & Erwan Quintin, 2017. "On the Nature of Self-Assessed House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(3), pages 628-649, July.
    33. Brian Bucks & Karen M. Pence, 2006. "Do homeowners know their house values and mortgage terms?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
    35. Carin van der Cruijsen & David†Jan Jansen & Maarten van Rooij, 2018. "The Rose†Tinted Spectacles of Homeowners," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 61-87, March.
    36. Raven S. Molloy & Eric R. Nielsen, 2018. "How Can We Measure the Value of a Home? Comparing Model-Based Estimates with Owner-Occupant Estimates," FEDS Notes 2018-10-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Marc Israel & Bruno Tissot, 2021. "Incorporating micro data into macro policy decision-making," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Micro data for the macro world, volume 53, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. García Ana Laura & González Juan Pedro & Velázquez Jhasua, 2022. "An Approach for Housing Wealth Estimation: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2022-12, Banco de México.
    3. Matthew Smith & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Top Wealth in America: New Estimates and Implications for Taxing the Rich," Working Papers 264, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    4. Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2020. "Trends in US Income and Wealth Inequality: Revising After the Revisionists," NBER Working Papers 27921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Samuel Narh Dorhetso, 2024. "A review of fifty-six years of consumer economics research," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-27, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joshua H. Gallin & Raven S. Molloy & Eric R. Nielsen & Paul A. Smith & Kamila Sommer, 2018. "Measuring Aggregate Housing Wealth : New Insights from an Automated Valuation Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Stijn Dreesen & Sven Damen, 2023. "The accuracy of homeowners’ valuations in the twenty-first century," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 513-566, July.
    3. Matthew Smith & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Top Wealth in America: New Estimates and Implications for Taxing the Rich," Working Papers 264, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    4. Michael Pollmann, 2020. "Causal Inference for Spatial Treatments," Papers 2011.00373, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    5. Thomas Y. Mathä & Alessandro Porpiglia & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2014. "Wealth differences across borders and the effect of real estate price dynamics: Evidence from two household surveys," BCL working papers 90, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    6. Lepinteur, Anthony & Waltl, Sofie R., 2020. "Tracking Owners' Sentiments: Subjective Home Values, Expectations and House Price Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 299, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    7. Michael J. Kottelenberg & Steven F. Lehrer, 2019. "How Skills and Parental Valuation of Education Influence Human Capital Acquisition and Early Labor Market Return to Human Capital in Canada," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 735-778.
    8. Yucheng Yang & Zhong Zheng & Weinan E, 2020. "Interpretable Neural Networks for Panel Data Analysis in Economics," Papers 2010.05311, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    9. Robertas Damasevicius, 2023. "Progress, Evolving Paradigms and Recent Trends in Economic Analysis," Financial Economics Letters, Anser Press, vol. 2(2), pages 35-47, October.
    10. Alla Koblyakova & Larisa Fleishman & Orly Furman, 2022. "Accuracy of Households’ Dwelling Valuations, Housing Demand and Mortgage Decisions: Israeli Case," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 48-74, July.
    11. Dylan G. Rassier & Bettina H. Aten & Eric B. Figueroa & Solomon Kublashvili & Brian J. Smith & Jack York, 2021. "Improved Measures of Housing Services for the U.S. Economic Accounts," Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis, May.
    12. Andini, Monica & Boldrini, Michela & Ciani, Emanuele & de Blasio, Guido & D'Ignazio, Alessio & Paladini, Andrea, 2022. "Machine learning in the service of policy targeting: The case of public credit guarantees," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 434-475.
    13. Nicola Borri & Pietro Reichlin, 2021. "Optimal Taxation with Home Ownership and Wealth Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 64-84, April.
    14. Thomas Y. Mathä & Alessandro Porpiglia & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2018. "Wealth differences across borders and the effect of real estate price dynamics: Evidence from two household surveys," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 26(1), pages 1-35, March.
    15. Alex Bell & Raj Chetty & Xavier Jaravel & Neviana Petkova & John Van Reenen, 2019. "Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 647-713.
    16. Naguib, Costanza, 2019. "Estimating the Heterogeneous Impact of the Free Movement of Persons on Relative Wage Mobility," Economics Working Paper Series 1903, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    17. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022. "How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.
    18. Chong Lu, 2022. "The effect of migration on rural residents’ intergenerational subjective social status mobility in China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3279-3308, October.
    19. Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Dahmann, Sarah C. & Salamanca, Nicolás & Zhu, Anna, 2022. "Intergenerational disadvantage: Learning about equal opportunity from social assistance receipt," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Braxton, John Carter & Chikhale, Nisha & Herkenhoff, Kyle & Phillips, Gordon, 2024. "Intergenerational Mobility and Credit," IZA Discussion Papers 16826, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Residential real estate; Consumer economics and finance; Data collection and estimation; Flow of funds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:51:y:2021:i:c:s105113772030070x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.