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Agriculture as a funding source of ISIS: A GIS and remote sensing analysis

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  • Jaafar, Hadi H.
  • Woertz, Eckart

Abstract

Agriculture is an important source of income for the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS), which currently rules over large parts of the breadbaskets of the two countries. It has received limited attention compared to other sources of ISIS revenues such as oil, looting, ransom, foreign donations and various forms of taxation. We estimate winter crops production of wheat and barley in ISIS-controlled areas in both Syria and Iraq for the years 2014–2015 and irrigated summer crops production (cotton) in Northeast Syria. We show that remote sensing can give a credible estimation of agricultural production in the absence of statistics. With evidence from MODIS Aqua and Terra Satellites as well as Landsat imagery, we find that agricultural production in ISIS-controlled Syrian and Iraqi zones has been sustained in 2014 and 2015, despite the detrimental impact of conflict. After a drought in 2014 production was able to capitalize on improved rainfalls in 2015. First indications show that the winter grain harvest of 2016 in Iraqi territories of ISIS was significantly above pre-conflict mean and below pre-conflict mean in its Syrian territories. We also show how water flows along the Euphrates have impacted production. We estimate the revenue that ISIS can derive from wheat and barley production and the likely magnitude of an exportable surplus. Agricultural production gives the group a degree of resilience, although its economy is not sustainable in the longer run and could be affected by military collapse. Taxation of recurrent income streams such as agriculture will become more important for ISIS as its extractive sources of revenues show signs of dwindling. Beside non-grain food imports, agricultural production is crucial for its political legitimacy by ensuring food provision to the broader population. Food security considerations would require a high priority in any post-ISIS reconstruction effort and would need to include the rehabilitation of supply chains for agricultural inputs such as quality seeds and fertilizers.

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  • Jaafar, Hadi H. & Woertz, Eckart, 2016. "Agriculture as a funding source of ISIS: A GIS and remote sensing analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 14-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:64:y:2016:i:c:p:14-25
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.002
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    2. Eckart Woertz, 2017. "Food security in Iraq: results from quantitative and qualitative surveys," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(3), pages 511-522, June.
    3. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    4. Edmond Noubissi & Henri Njangang, 2020. "The impact of terrorism on agriculture in African countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 730-743, December.
    5. Mohamed Ali Mohamed & Julian Anders & Christoph Schneider, 2020. "Monitoring of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover in Syria from 2010 to 2018 Using Multitemporal Landsat Imagery and GIS," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-31, July.
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    7. Philip Verwimp & Patricia Justino & Tilman Brück, 2018. "The Microeconomics of Violent Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 280, Households in Conflict Network.
    8. Adesoji Adelaja & Justin George & Louise Fox & Keith Fuglie & Thomas Jayne, 2021. "Shocks, Resilience and Structural Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-22, December.
    9. Andreas Eleftheriou & Petros Mouzourides & George Biskos & Panayiotis Yiallouros & Prashant Kumar & Marina K.-A. Neophytou, 2023. "The challenge of adopting mitigation and adaptation measures for the impacts of sand and dust storms in Eastern Mediterranean Region: a critical review," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(6), pages 1-36, August.
    10. Safwan A. Mohammed & Ali Alkerdi & János Nagy & Endre Harsányi, 2020. "Syrian crisis repercussions on the agricultural sector: Case study of wheat, cotton and olives," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 519-537, June.
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    12. Avuwadah, Benjamin Y. & Kropp, Jaclyn D. & Mullally, Conner C. & Morgan, Stephen N., 2020. "Heterogenous effects of conflict on agricultural production patterns: Evidence from Nigeria," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304417, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Revkin, Mara Redlich & Ahram, Ariel I., 2020. "Perspectives on the rebel social contract: Exit, voice, and loyalty in the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Mohannad ALOBID & Naji ALFARAJ & Szűcs ISTVÁN, 2019. "The Impact Of The Crisis On The Area, Production, And Productivity Of Major Crops In Syrian Agriculture : A Case Study Of Wheat, Barley, And Cotton," SEA - Practical Application of Science, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 21, pages 183-196, December.

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