IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v240y2024ics0165176524002490.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Braveheart: On the divergence of recommendations between normal and star analysts

Author

Listed:
  • Zeng, Sipeng
  • Li, Yingmei Esme

Abstract

This paper examines how conflicting recommendations from star analysts and normal analysts predict a firm's future stock price and operating performance. We find that when normal analysts issue bold negative recommendations that contradict the views of star analysts, firms that receive such negative recommendations experience worse stock returns and deteriorating fundamental performance over the following two years. Our study provides new insights into the disclosure of private information by financial analysts.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeng, Sipeng & Li, Yingmei Esme, 2024. "Braveheart: On the divergence of recommendations between normal and star analysts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:240:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524002490
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111765
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176524002490
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111765?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter D. Easton & Gregory A. Sommers, 2007. "Effect of Analysts' Optimism on Estimates of the Expected Rate of Return Implied by Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 983-1015, December.
    2. Oya Altınkılıç & Vadim S. Balashov & Robert S. Hansen, 2013. "Are Analysts' Forecasts Informative to the General Public?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2550-2565, November.
    3. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    4. Dan Palmon & Bharat Sarath & Hua C. Xin, 2020. "Bold Stock Recommendations: Informative or Worthless?†," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 773-801, June.
    5. Huang, Qianqian & Jiang, Feng & Lie, Erik & Yang, Ke, 2014. "The role of investment banker directors in M&A," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 269-286.
    6. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    7. Hemang Desai & Bing Liang & Ajai K. Singh, 2000. "Do All-Stars Shine? Evaluation of Analyst Recommendations," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(3), pages 20-29, May.
    8. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    9. Michael B. Clement & Senyo Y. Tse, 2005. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 307-341, February.
    10. Kathryn Kadous & Molly Mercer & Jane Thayer, 2009. "Is There Safety in Numbers? The Effects of Forecast Accuracy and Forecast Boldness on Financial Analysts' Credibility with Investors," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 933-968, September.
    11. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring.
    12. Kumar, Alok & Rantala, Ville & Xu, Rosy, 2022. "Social learning and analyst behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 434-461.
    13. Liang, Dawei & Pan, Yukun & Du, Qianqian & Zhu, Ling, 2022. "The information content of analysts’ textual reports and stock returns: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pham, Anh Viet, 2019. "Political risk and cost of equity: The mediating role of political connections," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-87.
    2. Justin Birru & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu & René M. Stulz, 2019. "Are Analyst Trade Ideas Valuable?," NBER Working Papers 26062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Vitor Azevedo & Patrick Bielstein & Manuel Gerhart, 2021. "Earnings forecasts: the case for combining analysts’ estimates with a cross-sectional model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 545-579, February.
    4. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    6. Chue, Timothy K. & Gul, Ferdinand A. & Mian, G. Mujtaba, 2019. "Aggregate investor sentiment and stock return synchronicity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Ciciretti, Rocco & Dalò, Ambrogio & Dam, Lammertjan, 2023. "The contributions of betas versus characteristics to the ESG premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 104-124.
    8. Jeong, Giho & Kang, Jangkoo & Kwon, Kyung Yoon, 2018. "Liquidity skewness premium," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 130-150.
    9. Berggrun, Luis & Cardona, Emilio & Lizarzaburu, Edmundo, 2020. "Firm profitability and expected stock returns: Evidence from Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Li, Frank Weikai & Sun, Chengzhu, 2022. "Information acquisition and expected returns: Evidence from EDGAR search traffic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. Lin, Chaonan & Chen, Hong-Yi & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2021. "Time-dependent lottery preference and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 272-294.
    12. Zhu, Zhaobo & Ding, Wenjie & Jin, Yi & Shen, Dehua, 2023. "Dissecting the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: A fundamental analysis approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Jiao, Yawen, 2024. "Managing decision fatigue: Evidence from analysts’ earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1).
    14. Cong, Lin William & George, Nathan Darden & Wang, Guojun, 2023. "RIM-based value premium and factor pricing using value-price divergence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    15. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Qiu, Buhui & Roh, Tai-Yong, 2022. "What drives the dispersion anomaly?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    16. Jiaju Miao & Pawel Polak, 2023. "Online Ensemble of Models for Optimal Predictive Performance with Applications to Sector Rotation Strategy," Papers 2304.09947, arXiv.org.
    17. Andrew Detzel, 2017. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Investment Opportunities, And Asset Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 315-348, September.
    18. Sina Ehsani & Juhani T. Linnainmaa, 2019. "Factor Momentum and the Momentum Factor," NBER Working Papers 25551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ben Ammar, Semir & Eling, Martin & Milidonis, Andreas, 2015. "Asset Pricing of Financial Insitutions: The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns in the Property/Liability Insurance Industry," Working Papers on Finance 1516, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    20. Poon, Percy & Yao, Tong & Zhang, Andrew (Jianzhong), 2022. "The alphas of beta and idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bold recommendation; Financial analyst; Star analyst; Buy and Hold Return;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:240:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524002490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.