Predictability in Financial Analyst Forecast Errors: Learning or Irrationality?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-679X.2006.00215.x
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Lang, M, 1991. "Time-Varying Stock-Price Response To Earnings Induced By Uncertainty About The Time-Series Process Of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 229-257.
- Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
- Griffin, Pa, 1977. "Time-Series Behavior Of Quarterly Earnings - Preliminary Evidence," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 71-83.
- Ball, Ray & Bartov, Eli, 1996. "How naive is the stock market's use of earnings information?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 319-337, June.
- Basu, Sudipta & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "Loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 171-203, December.
- Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 211-211.
- Abarbanell, Jeffery S., 1991. "Do analysts' earnings forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price changes?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 147-165, June.
- Chen, Qi & Francis, Jennifer & Jiang, Wei, 2005. "Investor learning about analyst predictive ability," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 3-24, February.
- Lys, Thomas & Sohn, Sungkyu, 1990. "The association between revisions of financial analysts' earnings forecasts and security-price changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 341-363, December.
- Brown, Ld & Rozeff, Ms, 1979. "Univariate Time-Series Models Of Quarterly Accounting Earnings Per Share - Proposed Model," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 179-189.
- Mikhail, MB & Walther, BR & Willis, RH, 1997. "Do security analysts improve their performance with experience?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 131-157.
- Mendenhall, Rr, 1991. "Evidence On The Possible Underweighting Of Earnings-Related Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 170-179.
- Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
- Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
- Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
- John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
- Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
- Alon Brav & J.B. Heaton, 2002. "Competing Theories of Financial Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 575-606, March.
- Mikhail, Michael B. & Walther, Beverly R. & Willis, Richard H., 2003. "The effect of experience on security analyst underreaction," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 101-116, April.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Jean‐Philippe Bouchaud & Philipp Krüger & Augustin Landier & David Thesmar, 2019.
"Sticky Expectations and the Profitability Anomaly,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 639-674, April.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Philipp Krueger & Augustin Landier & David Thesmar, 2016. "Sticky Expectations and the Profitability Anomaly," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-60, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Thesmar, David & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Krueger, Philipp & Landier, Augustin, 2017. "Sticky Expectations and the Profi tability Anomaly," CEPR Discussion Papers 12528, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rafael C Gatsios & Fabiano G Lima & VinÃcius M Magnani, 2018. "The impact of IFRS adoption on the accuracy and dispersion of analysts' forecasts in the Brazilian stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 2389-2398.
- Kumar, Alok & Rantala, Ville & Xu, Rosy, 2022. "Social learning and analyst behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 434-461.
- Lambert, David & Matolcsy, Zoltan & Wyatt, Anne, 2015. "Analysts' earnings forecasts and technological conditions in the firm's investment environment," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 104-120.
- Marinelli, Carlo & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2014. "On the relation between forecast precision and trading profitability of financial analysts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 39-60.
- Sandrine LARDIC & Karine MICHALON & François DOSSOU, 2008.
"Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?,"
Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(11), pages 1-20.
- François Dossou & Sandrine Lardic & Karine Michalon, 2008. "Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?," Post-Print halshs-00365972, HAL.
- Hwang, Joon Ho & Kim, Min-Su, 2015. "Misunderstanding of the binomial distribution, market inefficiency, and learning behavior: Evidence from an exotic sports betting market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 333-344.
- Carlo Marinelli & Alex Weissensteiner, 2013. "On the relation between forecast precision and trading profitability of financial analysts," Papers 1301.6638, arXiv.org.
- Guanming He, 2021. "Credit rating, post‐earnings‐announcement drift, and arbitrage from transient institutions," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(7-8), pages 1434-1467, July.
- C. S. Agnes Cheng & K. C. Kenneth Chu & James Ohlson, 2020. "Analyst forecasts: sales and profit margins," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 54-83, March.
- Tang, Michael & Zarowin, Paul & Zhang, Li, 2015. "How do analysts interpret management range forecasts?," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 48-66.
- Claire Y. C. Liang & Rengong Zhang, 2020. "Post-earnings announcement drift and parameter uncertainty: evidence from industry and market news," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 695-738, August.
- Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:11:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gul, Ferdinand A. & Khedmati, Mehdi & Shams, Syed M.M., 2020. "Managerial acquisitiveness and corporate tax avoidance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
- Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Torous, Walter & Yae, James, 2016. "Reading the tea leaves: Model uncertainty, robust forecasts, and the autocorrelation of analysts’ forecast errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 42-64.
- S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
- Jaeyong Lee & Jonathan A. Batten & Hyuna Ham & Doojin Ryu, 2024. "Does Portfolio Momentum Beat Analyst Advice?," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 60(2), pages 338-364, June.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Torous, Walter & Yae, James, 2016. "Reading the tea leaves: Model uncertainty, robust forecasts, and the autocorrelation of analysts’ forecast errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 42-64.
- repec:grz:wpsses:2020-04 is not listed on IDEAS
- Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
- Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
- Weihong Xu, 2009. "Evidence That Management Earnings Forecasts Do Not Fully Incorporate Information in Prior Forecast Errors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7-8), pages 822-837.
- Charles G. Ham & Zachary R. Kaplan & Zawadi R. Lemayian, 2022. "Rationalizing forecast inefficiency," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 313-343, March.
- Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
- Basu, Sudipta & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "Loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 171-203, December.
- S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
- Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
- X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 565-590, June.
- Mikhail, Michael B. & Walther, Beverly R. & Willis, Richard H., 2003. "The effect of experience on security analyst underreaction," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 101-116, April.
- Weihong Xu, 2009. "Evidence That Management Earnings Forecasts Do Not Fully Incorporate Information in Prior Forecast Errors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7‐8), pages 822-837, September.
- Jana Smith Raedy & Philip Shane & Yanhua Yang, 2006. "Horizon†Dependent Underreaction in Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 291-322, March.
- Jacob K. Thomas, 1999. "Discussion of “Post†Earnings Announcement Drift and the Dissemination of Predictable Information†," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 333-340, June.
- Stephannie A. Larocque & Melissa A. Martin & Beverly R. Walther, 2020. "Are Earnings Forecasts Informed by Proxy Statement Compensation Disclosures?†," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 741-772, June.
- Po‐Chang Chen & Ganapathi S. Narayanamoorthy & Theodore Sougiannis & Hui Zhou, 2020. "Analyst underreaction and the post‐forecast revision drift," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1151-1181, October.
- Brian Gibbons & Peter Iliev & Jonathan Kalodimos, 2021. "Analyst Information Acquisition via EDGAR," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 769-793, February.
- Kim, Hyun-Dong & Park, Kwangwoo & Song, Kyojik Roy, 2021. "Organization capital and analysts’ forecasts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 762-778.
- Lee, Bryan Byung-Hee & Lee, Jay Junghun, 2024. "Financial statement comparability and analysts’ optimism for accruals," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3).
- So, Eric C., 2013. "A new approach to predicting analyst forecast errors: Do investors overweight analyst forecasts?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 615-640.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:44:y:2006:i:4:p:725-761. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-8456 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.