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Eye in the sky: Private satellites and government macro data

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  • Mukherjee, Abhiroop
  • Panayotov, George
  • Shon, Janghoon

Abstract

We develop an approach to identify whether recent technological advancements—such as the rise of commercial satellite-based macro estimates—can provide an alternative to government data. We measure the extent to which satellite estimates affect the value of a government macro announcement using its asset price impact. Our identification relies on cloud cover, which prevents satellites from observing economic activity at a few key hubs. Applying our approach, we find that some satellite estimates are now so effective that markets are no longer surprised by government announcements. Our results point to a future in which the resolution of macro uncertainty is smoother and governments have less control over macro information.

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  • Mukherjee, Abhiroop & Panayotov, George & Shon, Janghoon, 2021. "Eye in the sky: Private satellites and government macro data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 234-254.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:141:y:2021:i:1:p:234-254
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.03.002
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    4. Dai, Yue & Chen, Minhao & Zuo, Zhengyu, 2023. "Neighbors in space: Satellite imagery and Chinese B-share discount," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
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    7. Kurov, Alexander & Sancetta, Alessio & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2022. "Drift Begone! Release policies and preannouncement informed trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Xianfeng Hao & Yudong Wang, 2023. "Cloud cover and expected oil returns," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Li, Lidan & Han, Jie & Mo, Shenwei & Yang, Yupeng, 2024. "Tackling competition by reducing emissions: Private firms’ polluting behavior under peer IPOs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 232-249.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Alternative macroeconomic data; Satellite-based forecasts; Role of hubs in economic forecasting; US crude oil; Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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