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Do countries falsify economic date strategically? Some evidence that they do

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  • Michalski, Tomasz
  • Stoltz, Gilles

Abstract

The authors find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries at times misreport their eco-nomic data in a strategic manner. Among those suspected are countries with xed exchange rate regimes, high negative net foreign asset positions or negative current account balances, which corroborates the intuition developed with a simple economic model. They also find that countries with bad institutional quality rankings and those in Africa, Middle East, Eastern Europe and Latin America release economic data of questionable veracity. Their evidence calls for models with public signals to consider strategic misinformation and for establishing inde- pendent statistical agencies to assure the delivery of high quality economic data.

Suggested Citation

  • Michalski, Tomasz & Stoltz, Gilles, 2010. "Do countries falsify economic date strategically? Some evidence that they do," HEC Research Papers Series 930, HEC Paris.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:0930
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; public information provision; misinformation; Benford's law; transparency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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