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Institutions and return predictability in oil-exporting countries

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  • Sirio Aramonte
  • Mohammad Jahan-Parvar
  • Justin Shugarman

Abstract

We study whether stock market returns in oil-exporting countries can be predicted by oil price changes, and we investigate the link between predictability and the quality of each country's institutions. Returns are predictable for half the countries we consider, and predictability is stronger when institutional quality is lower. We argue that the relation between predictability and institutional quality reflects the preference of countries with weaker institutions to consume oil windfalls locally rather than smooth out the impact of windfalls by, for instance, investing the proceeds through a sovereign wealth fund.

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  • Sirio Aramonte & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Justin Shugarman, 2015. "Institutions and return predictability in oil-exporting countries," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-14
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2015.014
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    2. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Bilgili, Faik, 2020. "An investigation of the financial resource curse hypothesis in oil-exporting countries: The threshold effect of democratic accountability," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Country studies; Quality of institutions; Return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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