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Liquidity regimes and optimal dynamic asset allocation

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  • Collin-Dufresne, Pierre
  • Daniel, Kent
  • Sağlam, Mehmet

Abstract

We solve a portfolio choice problem when expected returns, covariances, and trading costs follow a regime-switching model. The optimal policy trades towards an aim portfolio given by a weighted-average of the conditional mean-variance-efficient portfolios in all future states. The trading speed is higher in more persistent, riskier, and higher-liquidity states. It can be optimal to overweight low Sharpe-ratio assets such as Treasury bonds because they remain liquid even in crisis states. We illustrate our methodology by constructing an optimal US equity market timing portfolio based on an estimated regime-switching model and on trading costs estimated using a large-order institutional trading data set.

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  • Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Daniel, Kent & Sağlam, Mehmet, 2020. "Liquidity regimes and optimal dynamic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 379-406.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:136:y:2020:i:2:p:379-406
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.09.011
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    Cited by:

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    3. Bryan Kelly & Semyon Malamud & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2023. "Principal Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 347-387, February.
    4. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2019. "Economics with Market Liquidity Risk," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 8(1-2), pages 111-125, December.
    5. Yu, Xing & Shen, Xilin & Li, Yanyan & Gong, Xue, 2023. "Selective hedging strategies for crude oil futures based on market state expectations," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Hematizadeh, Roksana & Tajaddini, Reza & Hallahan, Terrence, 2022. "Dynamic asset allocation strategy using a state-dependent Markov model: Applications to international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Alain Bensoussan & Guiyuan Ma & Chi Chung Siu & Sheung Chi Phillip Yam, 2022. "Dynamic mean–variance problem with frictions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 267-300, April.
    8. Carré, Sylvain & Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Gabriel, Franck, 2022. "Insider trading with penalties," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Jia Yue & Ming-Hui Wang & Nan-Jing Huang, 2022. "Global Optimal Consumption–Portfolio Rules with Myopic Preferences and Loss Aversion," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(4), pages 1427-1455, December.
    10. Alessandro Micheli & Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Eyal Neuman, 2021. "Closed-Loop Nash Competition for Liquidity," Papers 2112.02961, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    11. Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Xiaofei Shi & Chen Yang, 2020. "An Equilibrium Model for the Cross-Section of Liquidity Premia," Papers 2011.13625, arXiv.org.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio choice; Dynamic models; Transaction costs; Stochastic volatility; Price impact; Risk-parity; Mean-variance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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