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Principal Portfolios

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  • BRYAN KELLY
  • SEMYON MALAMUD
  • LASSE HEJE PEDERSEN

Abstract

We propose a new asset pricing framework in which all securities' signals predict each individual return. While the literature focuses on securities' own‐signal predictability, assuming equal strength across securities, our framework includes cross‐predictability—leading to three main results. First, we derive the optimal strategy in closed form. It consists of eigenvectors of a “prediction matrix,” which we call “principal portfolios.” Second, we decompose the problem into alpha and beta, yielding optimal strategies with, respectively, zero and positive factor exposure. Third, we provide a new test of asset pricing models. Empirically, principal portfolios deliver significant out‐of‐sample alphas to standard factors in several data sets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan Kelly & Semyon Malamud & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2023. "Principal Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 347-387, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:78:y:2023:i:1:p:347-387
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13199
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    3. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    4. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2309-2340, December.
    5. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
    6. Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Daniel, Kent & Sağlam, Mehmet, 2020. "Liquidity regimes and optimal dynamic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 379-406.
    7. Gârleanu, Nicolae & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2016. "Dynamic portfolio choice with frictions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 487-516.
    8. Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Daniel, Kent & Sağlam, Mehmet, 2020. "Liquidity regimes and optimal dynamic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 379-406.
    9. Lasse Heje Pedersen & Abhilash Babu & Ari Levine, 2021. "Enhanced Portfolio Optimization," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 77(2), pages 124-151, April.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Francisco Peñaranda & Enrique Sentana, 2024. "Portfolio management with big data," Working Papers wp2024_2411, CEMFI.

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