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The rise in student loan defaults

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  • Mueller, Holger M.
  • Yannelis, Constantine

Abstract

We examine the rise in student loan defaults in the Great Recession by linking administrative student loan data at the individual borrower level to student loan borrowers’ individual tax records. A Blinder-Oaxaca style decomposition shows that shifts in the composition of student loan borrowers and the massive collapse in home prices during the Great Recession can each account for approximately 30% of the rise in student loan defaults. Falling home prices affect student loan defaults by impairing individuals’ labor earnings, especially for low income jobs. By contrast, when comparing the default sensitivities of homeowners and renters, we find no evidence that falling home prices affect student loan defaults through a home equity-based liquidity channel. The Income Based Repayment (IBR) program introduced by the federal government in the wake of the Great Recession reduced both student loan defaults and their sensitivity to home price fluctuations, thus providing student loan borrowers with valuable insurance against negative shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mueller, Holger M. & Yannelis, Constantine, 2019. "The rise in student loan defaults," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 1-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:131:y:2019:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.07.013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rajashri Chakrabarti & Vyacheslav Fos & Andres Liberman & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "Tuition, Debt, and Human Capital," Staff Reports 912, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Goodman, Sarena & Isen, Adam & Yannelis, Constantine, 2021. "A day late and a dollar short: Liquidity and household formation among student borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1301-1323.
    4. Catherine, Sylvain & Yannelis, Constantine, 2023. "The distributional effects of student loan forgiveness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 297-316.
    5. Looney, Adam & Yannelis, Constantine, 2022. "The consequences of student loan credit expansions: Evidence from three decades of default cycles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 771-793.
    6. Holger Mueller & Constantine Yannelis, 2022. "Increasing Enrollment in Income‐Driven Student Loan Repayment Plans: Evidence from the Navient Field Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 367-402, February.
    7. Paolo Guasoni & Yu-Jui Huang, 2022. "Minimizing the Repayment Cost of Federal Student Loans," Papers 2207.03438, arXiv.org.
    8. Matteo Binfarè & Kyle Zimmerschied, 2024. "The Role of Debt in Financing Higher Education," NBER Chapters, in: Financing Institutions of Higher Education, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Birzhan Batkeyev & Mine Ertugrul & Karthik Krishnan & Pinshuo Wang, 2024. "Is rising student debt affecting retirement savings? Evidence from the survey of consumer finances," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 589-623, August.
    10. Tomás Monarrez & Lesley J. Turner, 2024. "The Effect of Student Loan Payment Burdens on Borrower Outcomes," Working Papers 24-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Nadia Karamcheva & Jeffrey Perry & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "Income-Driven Repayment Plans for Student Loans: Working Paper 2020-02," Working Papers 56337, Congressional Budget Office.
    12. Giorgia Barboni & Juan Camilo Cárdenas & Nicolás de Roux, 2022. "Behavioral Messages and Debt Repayment," Documentos CEDE 20257, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    13. Lourie, Ben & Nekrasov, Alexander & Yoo, Il Sun, 2023. "The impact of debt forbearance on borrowers’ financial behavior and labor outcomes: Evidence from student loans," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Li, Phillip & Mayock, Tom, 2019. "Mortgage characteristics and the racial incidence of default," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    15. Adam Looney & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "How To Fix Federal Student Loan Programs," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 540-547, March.
    16. Manuel Salas-Velasco, 2022. "Causal Effects of Financial Education Intervention Aimed at University Students on Financial Knowledge and Financial Self-Efficacy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-16, June.
    17. Billings, Stephen B. & Gallagher, Emily A. & Ricketts, Lowell, 2022. "Let the rich be flooded: The distribution of financial aid and distress after hurricane harvey," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 797-819.
    18. Jason Jabbari & Mathieu Despard & Olga Kondratjeva & Brinda Gupta & Michal Grinstein-Weiss, 2023. "Nothing to show for it: Financial Distress and Re-Enrollment Aspirations for those with non-degreed debt," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 64(1), pages 1-32, February.
    19. Lattanzio, Gabriele & Megginson, William L. & Sanati, Ali, 2023. "Dissecting the listing gap: Mergers, private equity, or regulation?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Mangrum, Daniel, 2022. "Personal finance education mandates and student loan repayment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 1-26.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Student loans; Loan default; Great recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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