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Preemption in a real option game with a first mover advantage and player-specific uncertainty

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  • Thijssen, Jacco J.J.

Abstract

In this paper a two-player real option game with a first-mover advantage is analyzed, where payoffs are driven by a player-specific stochastic state variable. It is shown that there exists an equilibrium which has qualitatively different properties from those in standard real option games driven by common stochastic shocks. The properties of the equilibrium are four-fold: (i) preemption does not necessarily occur, (ii) if preemption takes place, the rent-equalization property holds, (iii) for almost all sample paths it is clear ex-ante which player invests first, and (iv) it is possible that both players invest simultaneously, even if that is not optimal. It is argued from simulations that real option games with a common one-dimensional shock do not provide a good approximation for games with player-specific uncertainty, even if these are highly correlated.

Suggested Citation

  • Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2010. "Preemption in a real option game with a first mover advantage and player-specific uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(6), pages 2448-2462, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:145:y:2010:i:6:p:2448-2462
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacco Thijssen, 2010. "Irreversible investment and discounting: an arbitrage pricing approach," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 295-315, July.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    3. Simon, Leo K. & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B., 1987. "Extensive From Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt03x115sh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    4. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401.
    5. Simon, Leo K & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B, 1989. "Extensive Form Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1171-1214, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alcino Azevedo & Dean Paxson, 2018. "Rivalry and uncertainty in complementary investments with dynamic market sharing," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 319-355, December.
    2. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    3. Ting, Sai Hung Marten & Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Wang, Wen-Kai, 2013. "On the investment–uncertainty relationship in a real option model with stochastic volatility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 22-32.
    4. Adrien Nguyen Huu, 2013. "Investment under uncertainty, competition and regulation," Papers 1309.1844, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2014.
    5. Dehghani Mohammad H., 2018. "Strategic Investment under Incomplete Information," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-23, July.
    6. Jacco J.J. Thijssen, "undated". "Equilibria in Continuous Time Preemption Games with Markovian Payoffs," Discussion Papers 11/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    7. Jan-Henrik Steg, 2015. "Symmetric Equilibria in Stochastic Timing Games," Papers 1507.04797, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    8. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Strategic investment with positive externalities," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-21.
    9. Ebina, Takeshi & Matsushima, Noriaki & Nishide, Katsumasa, 2022. "Demand uncertainty, product differentiation, and entry timing under spatial competition," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(1), pages 286-297.
    10. Milanesi, Gastón Silverio, 2023. "Valoración de estrategias competitivas, acuerdos colaborativos y penalizaciones con Opciones Reales Multinomiales y Teoría de Juegos [Valuation of competitive strategies, collaborative agreements a," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 35(1), pages 360-388, June.
    11. Delaney, L., 2015. "An Examination of the Optimal Timing Strategy for a Slow Trader Investing in a High Frequency Trading Technology," Working Papers 15/04, Department of Economics, City University London.
    12. Giovanni Villani, 2014. "Valuation of R&D Investment Opportunities with the Threat of Competitors Entry in Real Option Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 331-355, March.
    13. Charalampopoulos, George & Katsianis, Dimitris & Varoutas, Dimitris, 2020. "Investigating the intertwining impact of wholesale access pricing and the commitment to net neutrality principle on European next-generation access networks private investment plans: An options-game a," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    14. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2012. "Symmetric equilibrium strategies in game theoretic real option models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 219-225.
    15. Boyarchenko, Svetlana & Levendorskiĭ, Sergei, 2014. "Preemption games under Lévy uncertainty," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 354-380.
    16. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00831263 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Gorno, Leandro & Iachan, Felipe S., 2020. "Competitive real options under private information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    18. Hellmann, Tobias & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2016. "Fear of the market or fear of the competitor? Ambiguity in a real options game," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 533, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    19. Jeon, Haejun, 2021. "Investment timing and capacity decisions with time-to-build in a duopoly market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    20. Edouard Civel & Marc Baudry, 2018. "The Fate of Inventions. What can we learn from Bayesian learning in strategic options model of adoption ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-47, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    21. Zhang, Heng & Yang, Ming & Bao, Jiye & Gong, Pu, 2013. "Competitive investing equilibrium under a procurement mechanism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 734-738.

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