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Identifying the occurrence or non occurrence of cognitive bias in situations resembling the Monty Hall problem

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  • Fatemeh Borhani
  • Edward J. Green

Abstract

People reason heuristically in situations resembling inferential puzzles such as Bertrand's box paradox and the Monty Hall problem. The practical significance of that fact for economic decision making is uncertain because a departure from sound reasoning may, but does not necessarily, result in a "cognitively biased" outcome different from what sound reasoning would have produced. Criteria are derived here, applicable to both experimental and non-experimental situations, for heuristic reasoning in an inferential-puzzle situations to result, or not to result, in cognitively bias. In some situations, neither of these criteria is satisfied, and whether or not agents' posterior probability assessments or choices are cognitively biased cannot be determined.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatemeh Borhani & Edward J. Green, 2018. "Identifying the occurrence or non occurrence of cognitive bias in situations resembling the Monty Hall problem," Papers 1802.08935, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1802.08935
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.08935
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    2. John C. Harsanyi, 1967. "Games with Incomplete Information Played by "Bayesian" Players, I-III Part I. The Basic Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 159-182, November.
    3. Friedman, Daniel, 1998. "Monty Hall's Three Doors: Construction and Deconstruction of a Choice Anomaly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 933-946, September.
    4. Charalambos D. Aliprantis & Kim C. Border, 2006. "Infinite Dimensional Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, edition 0, number 978-3-540-29587-7, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barash, Jori & Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D. & Kodaverdian, Niree, 2019. "Heuristic to Bayesian: The evolution of reasoning from childhood to adulthood," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 305-322.
    2. Duarte Gonc{c}alves & Jonathan Libgober & Jack Willis, 2021. "Retractions: Updating from Complex Information," Papers 2106.11433, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.

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