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Deception and decision making in professional basketball: Is it beneficial to flop?

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  • Morgulev, Elia
  • Azar, Ofer H.
  • Lidor, Ronnie
  • Sabag, Eran
  • Bar-Eli, Michael

Abstract

We examine the behavior of professional referees and players in the context of offensive fouls in basketball. Over 500 incidents that had the potential to meet the criteria of an offensive foul were recorded from the 2009/10 season of the Israeli Basketball Super League and were analyzed by basketball experts. Falling intentionally in order to improve the chances to get an offensive foul is a very common behavior of defenders (almost two thirds of the recorded falls). It seems to be helpful at first, increasing indeed the chances to get an offensive foul, but a more careful analysis shows that the entire impact of an intentional fall on the team seems to be negative. We suggest that both rational reasons and biased decision making lead players to frequently act against their team's interest by falling. Referees almost never call an offensive foul if the player remained on his feet, and are generally calling fewer fouls than the number judged by experts as appropriate. We explain the referees’ behavior both by using the representativeness heuristic and by examining closely the referees’ interests and observing that to some extent even their officiating mistakes may be rational.

Suggested Citation

  • Morgulev, Elia & Azar, Ofer H. & Lidor, Ronnie & Sabag, Eran & Bar-Eli, Michael, 2014. "Deception and decision making in professional basketball: Is it beneficial to flop?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 108-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:102:y:2014:i:c:p:108-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2014.03.022
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    Cited by:

    1. Douglas N. VanDerwerken & Jacek Rothert & Brice M. Nguelifack, 2018. "Does the Threat of Suspension Curb Dangerous Behavior in Soccer? A Case Study From the Premier League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 759-785, August.
    2. Bar-Eli, Michael & Krumer, Alex & Morgulev, Elia, 2020. "Ask not what economics can do for sports - Ask what sports can do for economics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Mavisakalyan, Astghik & Palmer, Michael & Salazar, Silvia, 2025. "Big-up yourself! The Return to Self-Promotion," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1561, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Reuven Iusepolsky & Elia Morgulev & Sima Zach, 2022. "The “Empty-Goal” Rule Change from the Perspective of International-Level Team Handball Goalkeepers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-14, May.
    5. Morgulev, Elia & Galily, Yair, 2019. "Analysis of time-wasting in English Premier League football matches: Evidence for unethical behavior in final minutes of close contests," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-8.
    6. Craig A. Depken & Peter A. Groothuis & Mark C. Strazicich, 2020. "Evolution Of Community Deterrence: Evidence From The National Hockey League," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 289-303, April.
    7. Morgulev, Elia & Azar, Ofer H. & Bar-Eli, Michael, 2019. "Does a “comeback” create momentum in overtime? Analysis of NBA tied games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    8. Bernd Irlenbusch & Marie Claire Villeval, 2015. "Behavioral ethics: how psychology influenced economics and how economics might inform psychology?," Post-Print halshs-01159696, HAL.
    9. Craig A. Depken II & Peter A. Groothuis & Mark C. Strazicich, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of the Enforcer in the National Hockey League," Working Papers 16-12, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deception; Sports; Decision making; Basketball; Representativeness heuristic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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