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Will history repeat itself? Growth mixture modeling of suspected serial sexual offending using forensic DNA evidence

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  • Campbell, Rebecca
  • Pierce, Steven J.
  • Ma, Wenjuan
  • Feeney, Hannah
  • Goodman-Williams, Rachael
  • Sharma, Dhruv B.

Abstract

Sexual offenders often commit more than one sexual assault, but there is variability in how many assaults they commit and in what pattern over time. Trajectory modeling studies typically use criminal history records as a data source to model perpetrators' sexual assault convictions, but this may underestimate the scope of offending because so few sexual assaults result in a conviction.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell, Rebecca & Pierce, Steven J. & Ma, Wenjuan & Feeney, Hannah & Goodman-Williams, Rachael & Sharma, Dhruv B., 2019. "Will history repeat itself? Growth mixture modeling of suspected serial sexual offending using forensic DNA evidence," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcjust:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2019.01.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2010. "Latent Class Modeling with Covariates: Two Improved Three-Step Approaches," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 450-469.
    2. Wang, Chen-Pin & Hendricks Brown, C. & Bandeen-Roche, Karen, 2005. "Residual Diagnostics for Growth Mixture Models: Examining the Impact of a Preventive Intervention on Multiple Trajectories of Aggressive Behavior," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1054-1076, September.
    3. Lovell, Rachel & Luminais, Misty & Flannery, Daniel J. & Overman, Laura & Huang, Duoduo & Walker, Tiffany & Clark, Dan R., 2017. "Offending patterns for serial sex offenders identified via the DNA testing of previously unsubmitted sexual assault kits," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 68-78.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shaw, Jessica & Coates, Victoria & Janulis, Patrick, 2020. "High rates of sexual assault kit submission and the important role of place," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Strom, Kevin & Scott, Thomas & Feeney, Hannah & Young, Amanda & Couzens, Lance & Berzofsky, Marcus, 2021. "How much justice is denied? An estimate of unsubmitted sexual assault kits in the United States," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

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