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Was there a Ferguson Effect on crime rates in large U.S. cities?

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  • Pyrooz, David C.
  • Decker, Scott H.
  • Wolfe, Scott E.
  • Shjarback, John A.

Abstract

There has been widespread speculation that the events surrounding the shooting death of an unarmed young black man by a white police officer in Ferguson, Missouri—and a string of similar incidents across the country—have led to increases in crime in the United States. This study tested for the “Ferguson Effect” on crime rates in large U.S. cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Pyrooz, David C. & Decker, Scott H. & Wolfe, Scott E. & Shjarback, John A., 2016. "Was there a Ferguson Effect on crime rates in large U.S. cities?," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcjust:v:46:y:2016:i:c:p:1-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2016.01.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 163-190, Winter.
    2. Steven D. Levitt, 2002. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1244-1250, September.
    3. Shinichi Nakagawa, 2004. "A farewell to Bonferroni: the problems of low statistical power and publication bias," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 15(6), pages 1044-1045, November.
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    4. Adams, Ian T. & Mourtgos, Scott M. & Nix, Justin, 2023. "Turnover in large US policing agencies following the George Floyd protests," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Desmond Ang & Panka Bencsik & Jesse Bruhn & Ellora Derenoncourt, 2021. "Police violence reduces civilian cooperation and engagement with law enforcement," Working Papers 2021-005, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    6. Ratcliffe, Jerry H. & Taylor, Ralph B., 2023. "The disproportionate impact of post-George Floyd violence increases on minority neighborhoods in Philadelphia," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Christopher M. Sullivan & Zachary P. O’Keeffe, 2017. "Evidence that curtailing proactive policing can reduce major crime," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(10), pages 730-737, October.
    8. Cynthia Lum & Christopher S. Koper & David B. Wilson & Megan Stoltz & Michael Goodier & Elizabeth Eggins & Angela Higginson & Lorraine Mazerolle, 2020. "Body‐worn cameras’ effects on police officers and citizen behavior: A systematic review," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), September.
    9. Evelyn Skoy, 2021. "Black Lives Matter Protests, Fatal Police Interactions, And Crime," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 280-291, April.
    10. Sutherland, Alex & Ariel, Barak & Farrar, William & De Anda, Randy, 2017. "Post-experimental follow-ups—Fade-out versus persistence effects: The Rialto police body-worn camera experiment four years on," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 110-116.
    11. Wolff, Kevin T. & Intravia, Jonathan & Baglivio, Michael T. & Piquero, Alex R., 2022. "Violence in the Big Apple throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: A borough-specific analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Tanaya Devi & Roland G. Fryer Jr, 2020. "Policing the Police: The Impact of "Pattern-or-Practice" Investigations on Crime," NBER Working Papers 27324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Nix, Justin & Wolfe, Scott E., 2016. "Sensitivity to the Ferguson Effect: The role of managerial organizational justice," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 12-20.
    14. Campbell, Travis, 2024. "Black Lives Matter’s effect on police lethal use of force," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Moule, Richard K., 2020. "Under siege?: Assessing public perceptions of the “War on Police”," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Nix, Justin & Pickett, Justin T., 2017. "Third-person perceptions, hostile media effects, and policing: Developing a theoretical framework for assessing the Ferguson effect," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 24-33.
    17. Mourtgos, Scott M. & Adams, Ian T., 2019. "The rhetoric of de-policing: Evaluating open-ended survey responses from police officers with machine learning-based structural topic modeling," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Shjarback, John A. & Pyrooz, David C. & Wolfe, Scott E. & Decker, Scott H., 2017. "De-policing and crime in the wake of Ferguson: Racialized changes in the quantity and quality of policing among Missouri police departments," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 42-52.
    19. Mears, Daniel P. & Craig, Miltonette O. & Stewart, Eric A. & Warren, Patricia Y., 2017. "Thinking fast, not slow: How cognitive biases may contribute to racial disparities in the use of force in police-citizen encounters," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 12-24.
    20. Desmond Ang & Panka Bencsik & Jesse Bruhn & Ellora Derenoncourt, 2023. "Shots Fired: Crime and Community Engagement with Law Enforcement after High-profile Acts of Police Violence," Working Papers 315, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    21. Cheng, Cheng & Long, Wei, 2022. "The effect of highly publicized police killings on policing: Evidence from large U.S. cities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    22. Noray, Kadeem, 2024. "Police brutality, law enforcement, and crime: Evidence from Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    23. Winegard, Benjamin M. & Winegard, Bo M., 2018. "The emerging science of evolutionary criminology," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 122-126.

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    Keywords

    Crime trends; Ferguson; Policing;
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