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Examining the Link between Crime and Unemployment: A Time Series Analysis for Canada

Author

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  • Zuzana Janko

    (Department of Economics, San Francisco State University, California, USA)

  • Gurleen Popli

    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

Abstract

We use national and regional Canadian data to analyze the relationship between the unemployment rate and crime rates. Given potential aggregation bias, we disaggregate the aggregate crime data and look at the relationship between six different types of crimes and unemployment rate. At the national level, neither the aggregate total crime, nor the aggregate property crime are significantly related with the unemployment rate; however a rise in unemployment rate does significantly increase certain kinds of property crime, like breaking and entering, and robbery. At the regional level, the results of our panel data analysis also show that breaking and entering, and fraud rise as contemporaneous unemployment increases. When we extend our panel analysis to control for police-civilian ratio and other controls (this reduces our sample period) we find a significant relationship between unemployment and all crime rates except violent crime. Our results thus indicate that for Canada the unemployment rate is a significant factor in predicting property crimes but not violent crimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Zuzana Janko & Gurleen Popli, 2013. "Examining the Link between Crime and Unemployment: A Time Series Analysis for Canada," Working Papers 2013001, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2013001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sinha, Avik & Sengupta, Tuhin, 2020. "Governance Quality and Tourism: Moderation of Social Determinants of Crime," MPRA Paper 102212, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    2. Amit Ghosh & Salvador Contreras, 2022. "Local Banking Market Frictions and Youth Crime: Evidence from Bank Failures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 43-75, February.
    3. Serife Merve Kosaroglu, 2022. "Issizlik, Gelir, Nufus ve Suc Duzeyi Arasindaki Iliskinin Turkiye Icin Analizi," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(82), pages 35-52, June.
    4. Alassane Diaw & Oana-Ramona Lobont & Nicoleta Claudia Moldovan, 2014. "Some relevant risk factors and causal mechanisms to understand crime in Romania," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 8(2), pages 64-69, June.
    5. Kabeya Clement Mulamba, 2021. "A Spatial Analysis of Property Crime Rates in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(3), pages 329-347, September.
    6. Dmitry Burakov, 2019. "Oil Hikes, Drugs and Bribes: Do Oil Prices Matter for Crime Rate in Russia?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 84-94.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crime; unemployment; Canada; time series analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • K1 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law

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