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Asymmetry in government bond returns

Author

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  • Fujiwara, Ippei
  • Körber, Lena Mareen
  • Nagakura, Daisuke

Abstract

Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This finding has important implications for modeling and forecasting government bond returns. For example, widely used models for yield curve analysis such as the affine term structure model assume symmetrically distributed innovations. To answer the second question, we find that liquidity in government bond markets predicts the coefficient of skewness with a positive sign, meaning that the probability of a large and negative excess return is more likely in a less liquid market. In addition, a positive realized return is associated with a negative coefficient of skewness, or a small probability of a large and negative return in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Fujiwara, Ippei & Körber, Lena Mareen & Nagakura, Daisuke, 2013. "Asymmetry in government bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3218-3226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:3218-3226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.03.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Kinateder, Harald & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2019. "Sovereign bond return prediction with realized higher moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 53-73.
    2. De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2021. "Macrofinancial information on the post-COVID-19 economic recovery: Will it be V, U or L-shaped?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    3. Malinská, Barbora, 2022. "Time-varying pricing of risk in sovereign bond futures returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    4. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government bond returns; Skewness; Conditional symmetry test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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