IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v35y2011i10p2547-2558.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The return impact of realized and expected idiosyncratic volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Peterson, David R.
  • Smedema, Adam R.

Abstract

We show that the negative relation between realized idiosyncratic volatility, measured over the prior month, and returns is robust in non-January months. Controlling for realized idiosyncratic volatility, we show that the relation between returns and expected idiosyncratic volatility is positive and robust. Realized and expected idiosyncratic volatility are separate and important effects describing the cross-section of returns. We find the negative return on a zero-investment portfolio that is long high realized idiosyncratic volatility stocks and short low realized idiosyncratic volatility stocks is dependent on aggregate investor sentiment. In cross-sectional tests, we find the negative relation is weaker for stocks with a large analyst following and stronger for stocks with high dispersion of analyst forecasts. The positive relation between expected idiosyncratic volatility and returns is not due to mispricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Peterson, David R. & Smedema, Adam R., 2011. "The return impact of realized and expected idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2547-2558, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:10:p:2547-2558
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426611000860
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Xiaoquan Jiang & Bong‐Soo Lee, 2006. "The Dynamic Relation Between Returns and Idiosyncratic Volatility," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 43-65, June.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    4. Wei Huang & Qianqiu Liu & S. Ghon Rhee & Liang Zhang, 2010. "Return Reversals, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 147-168, January.
    5. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    6. Ang, Andrew & Hodrick, Robert J. & Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2009. "High idiosyncratic volatility and low returns: International and further U.S. evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-23, January.
    7. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    8. Rubin, Amir & Smith, Daniel R., 2011. "Comparing different explanations of the volatility trend," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1581-1597, June.
    9. Alon Brav & J.B. Heaton & Si Li, 2010. "The Limits of the Limits of Arbitrage," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(1), pages 157-187.
    10. Loughran, Tim, 1997. "Book-to-Market across Firm Size, Exchange, and Seasonality: Is There an Effect?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 249-268, September.
    11. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    12. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
    13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    14. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret, 2010. "World market risk, country-specific risk and expected returns in international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1152-1165, June.
    15. Xiaoquan Jiang & Bong-Soo Lee, 2006. "The Dynamic Relation Between Returns and Idiosyncratic Volatility," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 35(2), Summer.
    16. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    17. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    18. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 29-58, March.
    19. Choong Tze Chua & Jeremy Goh & Zhe Zhang, 2010. "Expected Volatility, Unexpected Volatility, And The Cross‐Section Of Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 103-123, June.
    20. Alexander Ljungqvist & Christopher Malloy & Felicia Marston, 2009. "Rewriting History," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1935-1960, August.
    21. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    22. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    23. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    24. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    25. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    26. Itzhak Venezia & Amrut Nashikkar & Zur Shapira, 2011. "Firm specific and macro herding by professional and amateur investors and their effects on market volatility," Discussion Paper Series dp586, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    27. Venezia, Itzhak & Nashikkar, Amrut & Shapira, Zur, 2011. "Firm specific and macro herding by professional and amateur investors and their effects on market volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1599-1609, July.
    28. Jiang, George J. & Xu, Danielle & Yao, Tong, 2009. "The Information Content of Idiosyncratic Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 1-28, February.
    29. Fu, Fangjian, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 24-37, January.
    30. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    31. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    32. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1988. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 2533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tariq Aziz & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2017. "Idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns: Indian evidence," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1420998-142, January.
    2. Tan, Monica & Liu, Bin, 2016. "CEO's managerial power, board committee memberships and idiosyncratic volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 21-30.
    3. Daniel Jubinski & Marc Tomljanovich, 2013. "Do FOMC minutes matter to markets? An intraday analysis of FOMC minutes releases on individual equity volatility and returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 86-97, September.
    4. Bergbrant, Mikael & Kassa, Haimanot, 2021. "Is idiosyncratic volatility related to returns? Evidence from a subset of firms with quality idiosyncratic volatility estimates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Becchetti, Leonardo & Ciciretti, Rocco & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2015. "Corporate social responsibility, stakeholder risk, and idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 297-309.
    6. Michael T. Chng & Victor Fang & Vincent Xiang & Hong Feng Zhang, 2017. "Corporate Hedging and the High Idiosyncratic Volatility Low Return Puzzle," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 395-425, September.
    7. Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David R. & Doran, James S., 2014. "Short-sale constraints and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: An event study approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 36-59.
    8. Stanislav Bozhkov & Habin Lee & Uthayasankar Sivarajah & Stella Despoudi & Monomita Nandy, 2020. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of stock returns: the role of mean-reverting idiosyncratic volatility," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 419-452, November.
    9. Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger & Nathan Mauck & Greg Stevenson, 2013. "Predicting Extreme Returns And Portfolio Management Implications," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 471-492, December.
    10. Beltratti, Andrea & Paladino, Giovanna, 2013. "Is M&A different during a crisis? Evidence from the European banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5394-5405.
    11. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Cao, Xu & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan, 2019. "Do idiosyncratic skewness and kurtosis really matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    12. Berggrun, Luis & Lizarzaburu, Edmundo & Cardona, Emilio, 2016. "Idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns: Evidence from the MILA," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 422-434.
    13. Jubinski, Daniel & Tomljanovich, Marc, 2013. "Do FOMC minutes matter to markets? An intraday analysis of FOMC minutes releases on individual equity volatility and returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 86-97.
    14. Chuxuan Xiao & Winifred Huang & David P. Newton, 2024. "Predicting expected idiosyncratic volatility: Empirical evidence from ARFIMA, HAR, and EGARCH models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 979-1006, October.
    15. Gider, Jasmin & Westheide, Christian, 2016. "Relative idiosyncratic volatility and the timing of corporate insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 312-334.
    16. Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad & Girijasankar Mallik, 2018. "Global idiosyncratic risk moments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 731-764, September.
    17. Berrada, Tony & Hugonnier, Julien, 2013. "Incomplete information, idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 448-462.
    18. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Is there a risk-return trade-off in cryptocurrency markets? The case of Bitcoin," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    19. Mihov, Atanas & Naranjo, Andy, 2017. "Customer-base concentration and the transmission of idiosyncratic volatility along the vertical chain," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 73-100.
    20. Moinak Maiti, 2019. "Is idiosyncratic risk ignored in asset pricing: Sri Lankan evidence?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-12, December.
    21. Doina C. Chichernea & Haimanot Kassa & Steve L. Slezak, 2019. "Lottery preferences and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(3), pages 655-683, June.
    22. Bin Liu & Amalia Di Iorio, 2016. "The pricing of idiosyncratic volatility: An Australian study," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(2), pages 353-375, May.
    23. Bin Liu & Monica Tan & Marie-Anne Cam, 2019. "Reinvestigate the Bid–Ask Bounce Effect and Pricing of Idiosyncratic Volatility: The Case of the Australian Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-23, March.
    24. Jungshik Hur & Cedric Mbanga Luma, 2017. "Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility, dynamic aspects of loss aversion, and narrow framing," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 407-433, August.
    25. Ajay Bhootra & Jungshik Hur, 2015. "High Idiosyncratic Volatility and Low Returns: A Prospect Theory Explanation," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 295-322, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aboulamer, Anas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-36.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, October.
    3. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    4. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    5. Miffre, Joëlle & Brooks, Chris & Li, Xiafei, 2013. "Idiosyncratic volatility and the pricing of poorly-diversified portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-85.
    6. Malagon, Juliana & Moreno, David & Rodríguez, Rosa, 2015. "The idiosyncratic volatility anomaly: Corporate investment or investor mispricing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 224-238.
    7. Yunting Liu, 2022. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Components of Idiosyncratic Volatility and Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1573-1589, February.
    8. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    9. Ajay Bhootra & Jungshik Hur, 2015. "High Idiosyncratic Volatility and Low Returns: A Prospect Theory Explanation," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 295-322, June.
    10. Turan G. Bali & Robert F. Engle & Yi Tang, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Beta Is Alive and Well in the Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3760-3779, November.
    11. Cao, Jie & Han, Bing, 2016. "Idiosyncratic risk, costly arbitrage, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Chuxuan Xiao & Winifred Huang & David P. Newton, 2024. "Predicting expected idiosyncratic volatility: Empirical evidence from ARFIMA, HAR, and EGARCH models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 979-1006, October.
    13. Berggrun, Luis & Lizarzaburu, Edmundo & Cardona, Emilio, 2016. "Idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns: Evidence from the MILA," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 422-434.
    14. Egginton, Jared & Hur, Jungshik, 2018. "The robust “maximum daily return effect as demand for lottery” and “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle”," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 229-245.
    15. Doran, James & Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David, 2007. "Short-Sale Constraints and the Non-January Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," MPRA Paper 4995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Zhu, Zhaobo & Ding, Wenjie & Jin, Yi & Shen, Dehua, 2023. "Dissecting the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: A fundamental analysis approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    17. Hassen Raîs, 2016. "Idiosyncratic Risk and the Cross-Section of European Insurance Equity Returns," Post-Print hal-01764088, HAL.
    18. Chiah, Mardy & Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2023. "Trade competitiveness and the aggregate returns in global stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Fenner, Richard G. & Han, Yufeng & Huang, Zhaodan, 2020. "Idiosyncratic volatility shocks, behavior bias, and cross-sectional stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 276-293.
    20. Tariq Aziz & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2017. "Idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns: Indian evidence," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1420998-142, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:10:p:2547-2558. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.