IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/japwor/v46y2018icp9-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trends, cycles and lost decades: Decomposition from a DSGE model with endogenous growth

Author

Listed:
  • Hasumi, Ryo
  • Iiboshi, Hirokuni
  • Nakamura, Daisuke

Abstract

In this paper we incorporate endogenous productivity growth into a medium-scale new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, to which a new shock regarding R&D activities is added. By matching the model parameters to the Japanese economy from 1980:Q2 to 2013:Q4 and decomposing the output into trend and cycle components, we find that the stagnation of the so-called lost decades was caused by a decline in economic growth as well as major recessions in the business cycle. The common trend estimated by our model is based on multiple time series data and is much more volatile than the trend extracted by either the Hodrick–Prescott or the band-pass filter.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasumi, Ryo & Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Nakamura, Daisuke, 2018. "Trends, cycles and lost decades: Decomposition from a DSGE model with endogenous growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 9-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:46:y:2018:i:c:p:9-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2018.02.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0922142517300361
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.japwor.2018.02.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    3. Pablo A. Guerron‐Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2022. "On Liquidity Shocks and Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2519-2546, December.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2011. "Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 1999-2041.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    6. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January.
    7. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2016. "The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 630-651, June.
    8. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    9. Daisuke Ikeda & Takushi Kurozumi, 2019. "Slow Post-financial Crisis Recovery and Monetary Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 82-112, October.
    10. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    11. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    12. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    13. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    14. John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Ikeda, Daisuke & Morita, Yasuko, 2020. "The effects of barriers to technology adoption on japanese prewar and postwar economic growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    16. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
    17. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    18. Sohei Kaihatsu & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 224-242, April.
    19. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2016. "Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Working Papers halshs-01661908, HAL.
    20. Sugo, Tomohiro & Ueda, Kozo, 2008. "Estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 476-502, December.
    21. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Matsumae, Tatsuyoshi & Namba, Ryoichi & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2015. "Estimating a DSGE model for Japan in a data-rich environment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 25-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2022. "Looking from Gross Domestic Income: Alternative view of Japan’s economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Soma, Naoto, 2019. "Inflation target and anchor of inflation forecasts in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 154-170.
    3. Haykaz Igityan & Hovhannes Manukyan, 2020. "Fitting Armenian Data to the Simple DSGE Model with Permanent Productivity Growth," Working Papers 14, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
    4. Satoshi Urasawa, 2018. "Structural Change and Business Cycles in Japan: Revisiting the Stylized Facts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(2), pages 243-281, November.
    5. Mikio Ishiwatari & Daisuke Sasaki, 2022. "Disaster Risk Reduction Funding: Investment Cycle for Flood Protection in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Felipe, Jesus & Estrada, Gemma, 2020. "What happened to the world's potential growth after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Hirschbühl, Dominik & Spitzer, Martin, 2021. "International medium-term business cycles," Working Paper Series 2536, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasumi, Ryo & Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Nakamura, Daisuke, 2017. "R&D Growth and Business Cycles Measured with an Endogenous Growth DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 85525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. MATSUMAE Tatsuyoshi & HASUMI Ryo, 2016. "Impacts of Government Spending on Unemployment: Evidence from a Medium-scale DSGE Model(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 329, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    4. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, February.
    5. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    7. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
    8. Inaba, Masaru & Nutahara, Kengo & Shirai, Daichi, 2022. "What drives fluctuations of labor wedge and business cycles? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Drago Bergholt, 2015. "Foreign Shocks," Working Papers No 11/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    10. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Foreign shocks in an estimated multi-sector model," Working Papers No 4/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    11. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 217-235.
    12. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2012. "Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Model Database," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 800-816, August.
    13. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
    14. Hirakata, Naohisa & Sudo, Nao & Takei, Ikuo & Ueda, Kozo, 2016. "Japan's financial crises and lost decades," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 31-46.
    15. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Sources of the Great Moderation: shocks, frictions, or monetary policy?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    17. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2011. "Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 1999-2041.
    18. Jarkko P. Jääskelä & Kristoffer Nimark, 2011. "A Medium‐Scale New Keynesian Open Economy Model of Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 11-36, March.
    19. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.
    20. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous TFP growth; New Keynesian DSGE; Trend shift; Technological change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:46:y:2018:i:c:p:9-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.