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On Liquidity Shocks and Asset Prices

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  • PABLO A. GUERRON‐QUINTANA
  • RYO JINNAI

Abstract

In models of financial frictions, stock market booms tend to follow adverse liquidity shocks. This finding is clearly at odds with the data. We demonstrate that this counterfactual result is specific to real business cycle models with exogenous growth. Once we allow for both endogenous productivity and growth, this puzzling price dynamic easily disappears. Intuitively, the gloomy economic‐growth outlook following an adverse liquidity shock generates a predictable and negative long‐run component in dividend growth, leading to the collapse of equity prices.

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  • Pablo A. Guerron‐Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2022. "On Liquidity Shocks and Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2519-2546, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:8:p:2519-2546
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12928
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    Cited by:

    1. Werner, Maximilian, 2023. "Occasionally binding liquidity constraints and macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    3. Ohdoi, Ryoji, 2024. "Financial shocks to banks, R&D investment, and recessions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 999-1022, July.
    4. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2017. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 824-857, March.
    5. Toshiaki Ogawa, 2020. "Liquidity Management of Heterogeneous Banks during the Great Recession," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    6. Hasumi, Ryo & Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Nakamura, Daisuke, 2018. "Trends, cycles and lost decades: Decomposition from a DSGE model with endogenous growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 9-28.
    7. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    8. Mahdi Nezafat & Ctirad Slavik, 2021. "Asset Prices and Business Cycles with Liquidity Shocks," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp711, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    9. Robert Amano & Thomas Carter & Sylvain Leduc, 2019. "Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk," Working Paper Series 2019-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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