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The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yasuo Hirose

    (Faculty of Economics, Keio University and Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail:yhirose@econ.keio.ac.jp))

  • Atsushi Inoue

    (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University (E-mail: atsushi.inoue@vanderbilt.edu))

Abstract

This paper examines how and to what extent parameter estimates can be biased in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that omits the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our Monte Carlo experiments using a standard sticky-price DSGE model show that no significant bias is detected in parameter estimates and that the estimated impulse response functions are quite similar to the true ones. However, as the probability of hitting the ZLB increases, the parameter bias becomes larger and therefore leads to substantial differences between the estimated and true impulse responses. It is also demonstrated that the model missing the ZLB causes biased estimates of structural shocks even with the virtually unbiased parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2014. "The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," IMES Discussion Paper Series 14-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:14-e-09
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zero lower bound; DSGE model; Parameter bias; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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