IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jof/jforec/v30y2011i2p268-287.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve? evidence from the G7 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ralf Fendel
  • Eliza M. Lis
  • Jan‐Christoph Rülke

Abstract

This paper uses monthly survey data for the G7 countries for the time period 1989–2007 to explore the link between expectations on nominal wages, prices and unemployment rates as suggested by the wage and price Phillips curves. Four major findings stand out. First, we find that survey participants trust in both types of Phillips curve relationships. Second, we find evidence in favor of nonlinearities in the price Phillips curve. Third, we take into account a kink in the price Phillips curve to indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve differs during the business cycle. We find strong evidence of this feature in the data which confirms recent theoretical discussions. Fourth, we employ our data to the expectations-augmented Phillips curve model. The results suggest that professional forecasters adopt this model when forecasting macroeconomic variables. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf Fendel & Eliza M. Lis & Jan‐Christoph Rülke, 2011. "Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve? evidence from the G7 countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 268-287, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:268-287
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1172
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:268-287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.