IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v34y2014icp123-130.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of bilateral air passenger flows: A non-parametric multivariate adaptive regression spline approach

Author

Listed:
  • Chang, Li-Yen

Abstract

Gravity models have long served as a framework for analyzing bilateral flows, trade and many other activities. To estimate a gravity model, (parametric) linear regression techniques have been commonly employed to develop the relationship between passenger flows and factors that can significantly influence these flows. This study explores the application of an alternative method, the non-parametric multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) technique, to identify the determinants for air passenger flows between pairs of countries. The data of 2006 and 2007 air passenger flows between pairs of countries in the APEC region were collected to develop the MARS models. Results indicate that distance between the countries, annual import value, national per capita income, unemployment rate and consumer price index of the origin country, as well as GDP, annual import value, and consumer price index of the destination country are significant determinants for bilateral air passenger flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Li-Yen, 2014. "Analysis of bilateral air passenger flows: A non-parametric multivariate adaptive regression spline approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 123-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:34:y:2014:i:c:p:123-130
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2013.09.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699713001208
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2013.09.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuhnert, Petra M. & Do, Kim-Anh & McClure, Rod, 2000. "Combining non-parametric models with logistic regression: an application to motor vehicle injury data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 371-386, September.
    2. Hwang, Cherng-Chwan & Shiao, Guo-Chou, 2011. "Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: an empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 738-744.
    3. Nitsch, Volker & Schumacher, Dieter, 2004. "Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 423-433, June.
    4. Endo, Nobuaki, 2007. "International trade in air transport services: Penetration of foreign airlines into Japan under the bilateral aviation policies of the US and Japan," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 285-292.
    5. Matsumoto, Hidenobu, 2007. "International air network structures and air traffic density of world cities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 269-282, May.
    6. Hazledine, Tim, 2009. "Border effects for domestic and international Canadian passenger air travel," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-13.
    7. Matsumoto, Hidenobu, 2004. "International urban systems and air passenger and cargo flows: some calculations," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 239-247.
    8. Chang, Li-Yen, 2012. "International air passenger flows between pairs of APEC countries: A non-parametric regression tree approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 4-6.
    9. Grosche, Tobias & Rothlauf, Franz & Heinzl, Armin, 2007. "Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 175-183.
    10. Anwar, Sajid & Nguyen, Lan Phi, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and trade: The case of Vietnam," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 39-52, January.
    11. Marrocu, Emanuela & Paci, Raffaele, 2013. "Different tourists to different destinations. Evidence from spatial interaction models," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 71-83.
    12. Wei, Wenbin & Hansen, Mark, 2006. "An aggregate demand model for air passenger traffic in the hub-and-spoke network," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 841-851, December.
    13. Yamaguchi, Katsuhiro, 2008. "International trade and air cargo: Analysis of US export and air transport policy," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 653-663, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tirtha, Sudipta Dey & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2024. "Accommodating spatio-temporal dependency in airline demand modeling," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Tirtha, Sudipta Dey & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2023. "Understanding the factors affecting airport level demand (arrivals and departures) using a novel modeling approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Li, Yanting & He, Yong & Su, Yan & Shu, Lianjie, 2016. "Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 392-401.
    4. Zhou, Heng & Xia, Jianhong (Cecilia) & Luo, Qingzhou & Nikolova, Gabi & Sun, Jie & Hughes, Brett & Kelobonye, Keone & Wang, Hui & Falkmer, Torbjorn, 2018. "Investigating the impact of catchment areas of airports on estimating air travel demand: A case study of regional Western Australia," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-103.
    5. Calzada, Joan & Fageda, Xavier & Safronov, Roman, 2022. "How do global airline alliances affect flight frequency? Evidence from Russia," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    6. Jo, Ah-Hyun & Chang, Young-Tae, 2023. "The effect of airport efficiency on air traffic, using DEA and multilateral resistance terms gravity models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Dey Tirtha, Sudipta & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2022. "An airport level framework for examining the impact of COVID-19 on airline demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 169-181.
    8. Y. X. Lee & Z. W. Zhong, 2016. "A study of the relationship between adverse weather conditions and flight delay," Journal of Advances in Technology and Engineering Research, A/Professor Akbar A. Khatibi, vol. 2(4), pages 112-117.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsui, Wai Hong Kan & Fung, Michael Ka Yiu, 2016. "Analysing passenger network changes: The case of Hong Kong," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Katrin Oesingmann, 2022. "The determinants of air cargo flows and the role of multinational agreements: An empirical comparison with trade and air passenger flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2370-2393, August.
    3. Gong, Qiang & Wang, Kun & Fan, Xingli & Fu, Xiaowen & Xiao, Yi-bin, 2018. "International trade drivers and freight network analysis - The case of the Chinese air cargo sector," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 253-262.
    4. Gizem Kaya & Umut Aydın & Burç Ülengin, 2023. "A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(39), pages 112-128, December.
    5. Tirtha, Sudipta Dey & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2023. "Understanding the factors affecting airport level demand (arrivals and departures) using a novel modeling approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    6. Hwang, Cherng-Chwan & Shiao, Guo-Chou, 2011. "Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: an empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 738-744.
    7. Chen, Jieh-Haur & Wei, Hsi-Hsien & Chen, Chih-Lin & Wei, Hsin-Yi & Chen, Yi-Ping & Ye, Zhongnan, 2020. "A practical approach to determining critical macroeconomic factors in air-traffic volume based on K-means clustering and decision-tree classification," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Matsumoto, Hidenobu & Domae, Koji, 2019. "Assessment of competitive hub status of cities in Europe and Asia from an international air traffic perspective," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 88-95.
    9. Matsumoto, Hidenobu & Domae, Koji, 2018. "The effects of new international airports and air-freight integrator's hubs on the mobility of cities in urban hierarchies: A case study in East and Southeast Asia," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 160-166.
    10. Matsumoto, Hidenobu & Domae, Koji & O'Connor, Kevin, 2016. "Business connectivity, air transport and the urban hierarchy: A case study in East Asia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 132-139.
    11. Dey Tirtha, Sudipta & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2022. "An airport level framework for examining the impact of COVID-19 on airline demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 169-181.
    12. Frédéric Dobruszkes & Christian Vandermotten, 2022. "Do scale and the type of markets matter? Revisiting the determinants of passenger air services worldwide," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/336304, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Vandermotten, Christian, 2022. "Do scale and the type of markets matter? Revisiting the determinants of passenger air services worldwide," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    14. Aydın, Umut & Ülengin, Burç, 2022. "Analyzing air cargo flows of Turkish domestic routes: A comparative analysis of gravity models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    15. Wang, Yu-Chen & Wong, Jinn-Tsai, 2019. "Exploring air network formation and development with a two-part model," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 122-131.
    16. Wilken, Dieter & Berster, Peter & Gelhausen, Marc C., 2016. "Analysis of demand structures on intercontinental routes to and from Europe with a view to identifying potential for new low-cost services," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(PB), pages 79-90.
    17. Gelhausen, Marc C. & Berster, Peter & Wilken, Dieter, 2018. "A new direct demand model of long-term forecasting air passengers and air transport movements at German airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 140-152.
    18. Zhou, Heng & Xia, Jianhong (Cecilia) & Luo, Qingzhou & Nikolova, Gabi & Sun, Jie & Hughes, Brett & Kelobonye, Keone & Wang, Hui & Falkmer, Torbjorn, 2018. "Investigating the impact of catchment areas of airports on estimating air travel demand: A case study of regional Western Australia," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-103.
    19. Alexander, D.W. & Merkert, R., 2021. "Applications of gravity models to evaluate and forecast US international air freight markets post-GFC," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 52-62.
    20. Nguyen, Quang Hai, 2024. "Modeling the volatility of international air freight: A case study of Singapore using the SARIMAX-EGARCH model," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:34:y:2014:i:c:p:123-130. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.