IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v119y2024ics0969699724000966.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the impact of economic conditions on passenger aircraft orders and deliveries using the Fourier transform

Author

Listed:
  • Katagiri, Kazuaki
  • Takiya, Toshio
  • Tanigawa, Masayuki
  • Furutera, Masaharu

Abstract

The growth of air passenger and cargo volumes is the result of innovations in aviation technology but is also significantly affected by the global economy. Various studies have been conducted to forecast the air transportation demand. In particular, for the management of passenger aircraft manufacturers and airlines, it is necessary to understand the trends in the number of orders and deliveries of passenger aircrafts. In this study, the Fourier transform was used to analyze the correlation between economic conditions and the number of orders and deliveries of passenger aircrafts. The results indicate that the fluctuations in the amplitudes of the numbers of orders and deliveries have been increasing. Furthermore, local peaks in the number of orders and deliveries tended to occur several years later than peaks in economic growth. However, the delay has shortened in recent years, the trend is assumed to synchronize with the growth of the global economy. At the same time, the introduction of next-generation passenger aircrafts does not necessarily result in immediate increases in orders and deliveries. Therefore, the impact of technological innovation is likely to be relatively small compared with that of economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Katagiri, Kazuaki & Takiya, Toshio & Tanigawa, Masayuki & Furutera, Masaharu, 2024. "Analysis of the impact of economic conditions on passenger aircraft orders and deliveries using the Fourier transform," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:119:y:2024:i:c:s0969699724000966
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102631
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699724000966
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102631?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Button, Kenneth & Taylor, Samantha, 2000. "International air transportation and economic development," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 209-222.
    2. Mio, Hitoshi, 2001. "The Phillips Curve and Underlying Inflation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(2), pages 85-107, May.
    3. Suh, Daniel Y. & Ryerson, Megan S., 2019. "Forecast to grow: Aviation demand forecasting in an era of demand uncertainty and optimism bias," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 400-416.
    4. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Stern, David I., 2020. "Flying More Efficiently: Joint Impacts of Fuel Prices, Capital Costs and Fleet Size on Airline Fleet Fuel Economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    5. Satoshi Urasawa, 2018. "Structural Change and Business Cycles in Japan: Revisiting the Stylized Facts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(2), pages 243-281, November.
    6. Brueckner, Jan K. & Abreu, Chrystyane, 2020. "Does the fuel-conservation effect of higher fuel prices appear at both the aircraft-model and aggregate airline levels?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    7. Nieto, María Rosa & Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo, 2018. "ARIMA + GARCH + Bootstrap forecasting method applied to the airline industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-8.
    8. Sun, Shaolong & Lu, Hongxu & Tsui, Kwok-Leung & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Nonlinear vector auto-regression neural network for forecasting air passenger flow," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-62.
    9. Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo & Nieto, María Rosa, 2020. "SARIMA damp trend grey forecasting model for airline industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Adedoyin, Festus Fatai & Bekun, Festus Victor & Driha, Oana M. & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2020. "The effects of air transportation, energy, ICT and FDI on economic growth in the industry 4.0 era: Evidence from the United States," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    11. Satoshi Urasawa, 2008. "Business cycle fluctuations in Japanese macroeconomic time series: 1980–2000," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 451-480.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hopfe, David H. & Lee, Kiljae & Yu, Chunyan, 2024. "Short-term forecasting airport passenger flow during periods of volatility: Comparative investigation of time series vs. neural network models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Wang, Sen & Gao, Yi, 2021. "A literature review and citation analyses of air travel demand studies published between 2010 and 2020," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    3. Wang, Zhanwei & Song, Woon-Kyung, 2020. "Sustainable airport development with performance evaluation forecasts: A case study of 12 Asian airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Spiritus, Kevin & Lehmann, Etienne & Renes, Sander & Zoutman, Floris T., 0. "Optimal taxation with multiple incomes and types," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
    5. Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo & Nieto, María Rosa, 2020. "SARIMA damp trend grey forecasting model for airline industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Rafael Bernardo Carmona Benitez & Maria Rosa Nieto, 2023. "A methodology for calculating the unmet passenger demand in the air transportation industry," Papers 23003, Working Papers of Business and Economics School. Anahuac University (Mexico)..
    7. Maria Rosa Nieto & Rafael Bernardo Carmona-Benítez, 2021. "An Approach to Measure the Performance and the Efficiency of Future Airport Infrastructure," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-28, August.
    8. Emami Javanmard, Majid & Tang, Yili & Martínez-Hernández, J. Adrián, 2024. "Forecasting air transportation demand and its impacts on energy consumption and emission," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    9. Seungju Nam & Sejong Choi & Georgia Edell & Amartya De & Woon-Kyung Song, 2023. "Comparative Analysis of the Aviation Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) Industry in Northeast Asian Countries: A Suggestion for the Development of Korea’s MRO Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Umlai, Mohamed, 2023. "ICT sector, digitization and environmental sustainability: A systematic review of the literature from 2000 to 2022," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    11. Kenneth Button & Junyang Yuan, 2013. "Airfreight Transport and Economic Development: An Examination of Causality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(2), pages 329-340, February.
    12. Rehman Khan, Syed Abdul & Qianli, Dong & SongBo, Wei & Zaman, Khalid & Zhang, Yu, 2017. "Travel and tourism competitiveness index: The impact of air transportation, railways transportation, travel and transport services on international inbound and outbound tourism," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 125-134.
    13. Lin, Weiqiang, 2014. "The politics of flying: aeromobile frictions in a mobile city," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 92-99.
    14. Eric Tchouamou Njoya & Panayotis Christidis, 2017. "Potential impacts of liberalisation of the EU-Africa aviation market," JRC Research Reports JRC106855, Joint Research Centre.
    15. Chen, Yu & Zhao, Changyi & Chen, Shan & Chen, Wenqing & Wan, Kunyang & Wei, Jia, 2023. "Riding the green rails: Exploring the nexus between high-speed trains, green innovation, and carbon emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    16. Mio, Hitoshi, 2002. "Identifying Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Components of Inflation Rate: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(1), pages 33-56, January.
    17. Javier Campos, 2013. "Air transport," Chapters, in: Mattias Finger & Torben Holvad (ed.), Regulating Transport in Europe, chapter 2, pages 36-60, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Ghannouchi, Imen, 2023. "Examining the dynamic nexus between industry 4.0 technologies and sustainable economy: New insights from empirical evidence using GMM estimator across 20 OECD nations," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Lenaerts, Bert & Allroggen, Florian & Malina, Robert, 2021. "The economic impact of aviation: A review on the role of market access," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. Jankiewicz, Jacek & Huderek-Glapska, Sonia, 2016. "The air transport market in Central and Eastern Europe after a decade of liberalisation – Different paths of growth," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 45-56.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:119:y:2024:i:c:s0969699724000966. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.