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A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football

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  • Wheatcroft, Edward

Abstract

The over/under 2.5 goals betting market allows gamblers to bet on whether the total number of goals in a football match will exceed 2.5. In this paper, a set of ratings, named ‘Generalised Attacking Performance’ (GAP) ratings, are defined which measure the attacking and defensive performance of each team in a league. GAP ratings are used to forecast matches in ten European football leagues and their profitability is tested in the over/under market using two value betting strategies. GAP ratings with match statistics such as shots and shots on target as inputs are shown to yield better predictive value than the number of goals. An average profit of around 0.8 percent per bet taken is demonstrated over twelve years when using only shots and corners (and not goals) as inputs. The betting strategy is shown to be robust by comparing it to a random betting strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wheatcroft, Edward, 2020. "A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103712, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:103712
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/103712/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Raffaele Mattera, 2023. "Forecasting binary outcomes in soccer," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 115-134, June.
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    3. Holmes, Benjamin & McHale, Ian G., 2024. "Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 302-312.
    4. Lawrence Clegg & John Cartlidge, 2023. "Not feeling the buzz: Correction study of mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks," Papers 2306.01740, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    probability forecasting; sports forecasting; football forecasting; football predictions; soccer predictions; value betting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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