IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v39y2023i3p1272-1286.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Daily peak electrical load forecasting with a multi-resolution approach

Author

Listed:
  • Amara-Ouali, Yvenn
  • Fasiolo, Matteo
  • Goude, Yannig
  • Yan, Hui

Abstract

In the context of smart grids and load balancing, daily peak load forecasting has become a critical activity for stakeholders in the energy industry. An understanding of peak magnitude and timing is paramount for the implementation of smart grid strategies such as peak shaving. The modelling approach proposed in this paper leverages high-resolution and low-resolution information to forecast daily peak demand size and timing. The resulting multi-resolution modelling framework can be adapted to different model classes. The key contributions of this paper are (a) a general and formal introduction to the multi-resolution modelling approach, (b) a discussion of modelling approaches at different resolutions implemented via generalised additive models and neural networks, and (c) experimental results on real data from the UK electricity market. The results confirm that the predictive performance of the proposed modelling approach is competitive with that of low- and high-resolution alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Amara-Ouali, Yvenn & Fasiolo, Matteo & Goude, Yannig & Yan, Hui, 2023. "Daily peak electrical load forecasting with a multi-resolution approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1272-1286.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:39:y:2023:i:3:p:1272-1286
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.06.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207022000929
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.06.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2018. "Quantile Regression Model for Peak Load Demand Forecasting with Approximation by Triangular Distribution to Avoid Blackouts," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 119-124.
    2. Amato, Umberto & Antoniadis, Anestis & De Feis, Italia & Goude, Yannig & Lagache, Audrey, 2021. "Forecasting high resolution electricity demand data with additive models including smooth and jagged components," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 171-185.
    3. Bercedis Peterson & Frank E. Harrell, 1990. "Partial Proportional Odds Models for Ordinal Response Variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 39(2), pages 205-217, June.
    4. Simon N. Wood & Natalya Pya & Benjamin Säfken, 2016. "Smoothing Parameter and Model Selection for General Smooth Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(516), pages 1548-1563, October.
    5. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    6. Haeran Cho & Yannig Goude & Xavier Brossat & Qiwei Yao, 2013. "Modeling and Forecasting Daily Electricity Load Curves: A Hybrid Approach," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(501), pages 7-21, March.
    7. Simon N. Wood, 2003. "Thin plate regression splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 95-114, February.
    8. Anestis Antoniadis & Efstathios Paparoditis & Theofanis Sapatinas, 2006. "A functional wavelet–kernel approach for time series prediction," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(5), pages 837-857, November.
    9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    10. Uddin, Moslem & Romlie, Mohd Fakhizan & Abdullah, Mohd Faris & Abd Halim, Syahirah & Abu Bakar, Ab Halim & Chia Kwang, Tan, 2018. "A review on peak load shaving strategies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3323-3332.
    11. Guo, Zhifeng & Zhou, Kaile & Zhang, Xiaoling & Yang, Shanlin, 2018. "A deep learning model for short-term power load and probability density forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 1186-1200.
    12. Dong-Hoon Kim & Eun-Kyu Lee & Naik Bakht Sania Qureshi, 2020. "Peak-Load Forecasting for Small Industries: A Machine Learning Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-19, August.
    13. Saxena, Harshit & Aponte, Omar & McConky, Katie T., 2019. "A hybrid machine learning model for forecasting a billing period’s peak electric load days," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1288-1303.
    14. Yang, Yandong & Hong, Weijun & Li, Shufang, 2019. "Deep ensemble learning based probabilistic load forecasting in smart grids," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    15. Sigauke, C. & Chikobvu, D., 2011. "Prediction of daily peak electricity demand in South Africa using volatility forecasting models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 882-888, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan Berrisch & Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2022. "High-Resolution Peak Demand Estimation Using Generalized Additive Models and Deep Neural Networks," Papers 2203.03342, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    2. Lee, Juyong & Cho, Youngsang, 2022. "National-scale electricity peak load forecasting: Traditional, machine learning, or hybrid model?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    3. Yang, Dongchuan & Guo, Ju-e & Sun, Shaolong & Han, Jing & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "An interval decomposition-ensemble approach with data-characteristic-driven reconstruction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    4. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Tao XIONG & Chongguang LI & Yukun BAO, 2017. "An improved EEMD-based hybrid approach for the short-term forecasting of hog price in China," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(3), pages 136-148.
    6. Fijorek Kamil & Leśniewska Agnieszka, 2012. "Statistical Forecasting of the Indicators of Polish Airport’s Operations," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 7-7, January.
    7. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil real prices with averaging time-varying VAR models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Emil Kraft & Dogan Keles & Wolf Fichtner, 2020. "Modeling of frequency containment reserve prices with econometrics and artificial intelligence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1179-1197, December.
    9. Jonathan Roth & Jayashree Chadalawada & Rishee K. Jain & Clayton Miller, 2021. "Uncertainty Matters: Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting for Residential Smart Meter Prediction, Segmentation, and Behavioral Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    10. Demirer, Riza & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying risk aversion and realized gold volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Song, Haiyan & Wen, Long & Liu, Chang, 2019. "Density tourism demand forecasting revisited," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-392.
    12. Feng, Lingbing & Shi, Yanlin & Chang, Le, 2021. "Forecasting mortality with a hyperbolic spatial temporal VAR model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 255-273.
    13. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2016. "Forecasting spot oil price in a dynamic model averaging framework — Have the determinants changed over time?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 35-46.
    14. Lu, Shixiang & Xu, Qifa & Jiang, Cuixia & Liu, Yezheng & Kusiak, Andrew, 2022. "Probabilistic load forecasting with a non-crossing sparse-group Lasso-quantile regression deep neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    15. Sun, Tianyu & Chand, Satish & Sharpe, Keiran, 2018. "Effect of aging on housing prices: evidence from a panel data," MPRA Paper 94418, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2019.
    16. Hao, Jun & Feng, Qianqian & Yuan, Jiaxin & Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping, 2022. "A dynamic ensemble learning with multi-objective optimization for oil prices prediction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Eckert, Florian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2021. "Forecasting Swiss exports using Bayesian forecast reconciliation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 693-710.
    18. Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2024. "Stock market bubbles and the realized volatility of oil price returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    19. Krzysztof Drachal, 2022. "Forecasting the Crude Oil Spot Price with Bayesian Symbolic Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29, December.
    20. Bonato, Matteo & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "A note on investor happiness and the predictability of realized volatility of gold," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:39:y:2023:i:3:p:1272-1286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.