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Intermittency and obsolescence: A Croston method with linear decay

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  • Prestwich, S.D.
  • Tarim, S.A.
  • Rossi, R.

Abstract

Only two forecasting methods have been designed specifically for intermittent demand with possible demand obsolescence: Teunter–Syntetos–Babai (TSB) and Hyperbolic-Exponential Smoothing (HES). When an item becomes obsolete the TSB forecasts decay exponentially while those of HES decay hyperbolically. Both types of decay continue to predict nonzero demand indefinitely, and it would be preferable for forecasts to become zero after a finite time. We describe a third method, called Exponential Smoothing with Linear Decay, that decays linearly to zero in a finite time, is asymptotically the best method for handling obsolescence, and performs well in experiments on real and synthetic data.

Suggested Citation

  • Prestwich, S.D. & Tarim, S.A. & Rossi, R., 2021. "Intermittency and obsolescence: A Croston method with linear decay," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 708-715.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:37:y:2021:i:2:p:708-715
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.010
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    1. Aleksandr N. Grekov & Elena V. Vyshkvarkova & Aleksandr S. Mavrin, 2024. "Forecasting and Anomaly Detection in BEWS: Comparative Study of Theta, Croston, and Prophet Algorithms," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Amniattalab, Ayda & Frenk, J.B.G. & Hekimoğlu, Mustafa, 2023. "On spare parts demand and the installed base concept: A theoretical approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).

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