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An ensemble approach to GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting

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  • Landgraf, Andrew J.

Abstract

We present an ensembling approach to medium-term probabilistic load forecasting which ranked second out of 73 competitors in the defined data track of the GEFCom2017 qualifying match. In addition to being accurate, the ensemble method is highly scalable, due to the fact that it had to be applied to nine quantiles in ten zones and for six rounds. Candidate forecasts were generated using random settings for input data, covariates, and learning algorithms. The best candidate forecasts were averaged to create the final forecast, with the number of candidate forecasts being chosen based on their accuracy in similar validation periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Landgraf, Andrew J., 2019. "An ensemble approach to GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1432-1438.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1432-1438
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.02.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hong, Tao & Xie, Jingrui & Black, Jonathan, 2019. "Global energy forecasting competition 2017: Hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1389-1399.
    2. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, September.
    3. Haben, Stephen & Giasemidis, Georgios, 2016. "A hybrid model of kernel density estimation and quantile regression for GEFCom2014 probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1017-1022.
    4. Nagy, Gábor I. & Barta, Gergő & Kazi, Sándor & Borbély, Gyula & Simon, Gábor, 2016. "GEFCom2014: Probabilistic solar and wind power forecasting using a generalized additive tree ensemble approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1087-1093.
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    Cited by:

    1. Che, Jinxing & Yuan, Fang & Deng, Dewen & Jiang, Zheyong, 2023. "Ultra-short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting with spatial-temporal multi-scale features and K-FSDW based weight," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).

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