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Global energy forecasting competition 2017: Hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting

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  • Hong, Tao
  • Xie, Jingrui
  • Black, Jonathan

Abstract

The Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2017 (GEFCom2017) attracted more than 300 students and professionals from over 30 countries for solving hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting problems. Of the series of global energy forecasting competitions that have been held, GEFCom2017 is the most challenging one to date: the first one to have a qualifying match, the first one to use hierarchical data with more than two levels, the first one to allow the usage of external data sources, the first one to ask for real-time ex-ante forecasts, and the longest one. This paper introduces the qualifying and final matches of GEFCom2017, summarizes the top-ranked methods, publishes the data used in the competition, and presents several reflections on the competition series and a vision for future energy forecasting competitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong, Tao & Xie, Jingrui & Black, Jonathan, 2019. "Global energy forecasting competition 2017: Hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1389-1399.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1389-1399
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.02.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rob J. Hyndman & George Athanasopoulos, 2014. "Optimally Reconciling Forecasts in a Hierarchy," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 35, pages 42-48, Fall.
    2. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu, 2014. "Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 357-363.
    3. Wang, Pu & Liu, Bidong & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Electric load forecasting with recency effect: A big data approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 585-597.
    4. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Troccoli, Alberto & Hyndman, Rob J., 2016. "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 896-913.
    5. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    6. Puwasala Gamakumara & Anastasios Panagiotelis & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman, 2018. "Probabilisitic forecasts in hierarchical time series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Souhaib Ben Taieb & James W. Taylor & Rob J. Hyndman, 2017. "Coherent Probabilistic Forecasts for Hierarchical Time Series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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