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Probabilistic forecasts from probabilistic models: A case study in the oil market

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  • Abramson, Bruce
  • Finizza, Anthony

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  • Abramson, Bruce & Finizza, Anthony, 1995. "Probabilistic forecasts from probabilistic models: A case study in the oil market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-72, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:63-72
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen G. Powell, 1990. "The Target Capacity-Utilization Model of OPEC and the Dynamics of the World Oil Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 27-64.
    2. Abramson, Bruce & Finizza, Anthony, 1991. "Using belief networks to forecast oil prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 299-315, November.
    3. Gately, Dermot, 1984. "A Ten-Year Retrospective: OPEC and the World Oil Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1100-1114, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Chakriya Bowman, 2004. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment," IMF Working Papers 2004/041, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Hongtao Chen & Lianghua Chen, 2015. "Multifractal spectrum analysis of Brent crude oil futures prices volatility in intercontinental exchange," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 38(1/2/3), pages 93-108.
    3. Abramson, Bruce & Brown, John & Edwards, Ward & Murphy, Allan & Winkler, Robert L., 1996. "Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 57-71, March.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Sun, Shaolong & Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2018. "Interval decomposition ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 274-287.
    6. Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2008. "Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2623-2635, September.
    7. Abramson, Bruce & Clemen, Robert, 1995. "Probability forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-4, March.
    8. Yang, Kailing & Zhang, Xi & Luo, Haojia & Hou, Xianping & Lin, Yu & Wu, Jingyu & Yu, Liang, 2024. "Predicting energy prices based on a novel hybrid machine learning: Comprehensive study of multi-step price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    9. Theodore Syriopoulos & Michael Tsatsaronis & Ioannis Karamanos, 2021. "Support Vector Machine Algorithms: An Application to Ship Price Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 55-87, January.
    10. Conejo, Antonio J. & Contreras, Javier & Espinola, Rosa & Plazas, Miguel A., 2005. "Forecasting electricity prices for a day-ahead pool-based electric energy market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 435-462.
    11. Ghaffari, Ali & Zare, Samaneh, 2009. "A novel algorithm for prediction of crude oil price variation based on soft computing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 531-536, July.
    12. Lin, Yu & Lu, Qin & Tan, Bin & Yu, Yuanyuan, 2022. "Forecasting energy prices using a novel hybrid model with variational mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    13. Li, Xuerong & Shang, Wei & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Text-based crude oil price forecasting: A deep learning approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1548-1560.
    14. Fan, Ying & Liang, Qiang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "A generalized pattern matching approach for multi-step prediction of crude oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 889-904, May.
    15. Zhang, Xun & Lai, K.K. & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2008. "A new approach for crude oil price analysis based on Empirical Mode Decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 905-918, May.

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