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The Target Capacity-Utilization Model of OPEC and the Dynamics of the World Oil Market

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  • Stephen G. Powell

Abstract

Modeling the world oil market became a widespread concern after the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 and the resulting four-fold increase in the price of crude oil. By the late seventies, when the Energy Modeling Forum began its study of world oil models, at least thirty publicly available models were in existence. The pace of development of new models has slowed somewhat in the eighties, a result of reduced funding for energy studies and probably a better appreciation within the modeling community of the difficulties inherent in the activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen G. Powell, 1990. "The Target Capacity-Utilization Model of OPEC and the Dynamics of the World Oil Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 27-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1990v11-01-a06
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Borisov Todorov & Fernando Sánchez Lasheras, 2022. "Forecasting Applied to the Electricity, Energy, Gas and Oil Industries: A Systematic Review," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-15, October.
    2. Vatter, Marc H., 2017. "OPEC's kinked demand curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 272-287.
    3. Abramson, Bruce & Finizza, Anthony, 1995. "Probabilistic forecasts from probabilistic models: A case study in the oil market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-72, March.
    4. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "Modeling world oil market questions: An economic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. Wirl, Franz, 2015. "Output adjusting cartels facing dynamic, convex demand under uncertainty: The case of OPEC," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 307-316.
    6. Hendalianpour, Ayad & Liu, Peide & Amirghodsi, Sirous & Hamzehlou, Mohammad, 2022. "Designing a System Dynamics model to simulate criteria affecting oil and gas development contracts," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Wirl, Franz, 2008. "Why do oil prices jump (or fall)?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1029-1043, March.
    8. Michael Ye & John Zyren & Carol Blumberg & Joanne Shore, 2009. "A Short-Run Crude Oil Price Forecast Model with Ratchet Effect," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 37(1), pages 37-50, March.
    9. Robin Sickles & Peter Hartley, 2001. "A Model of Optimal Dynamic Oil Extraction: Evidence From a Large Middle Eastern Field," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 59-71, January.
    10. Ramesh Bollapragada & Akash Mankude & V. Udayabhanu, 2021. "Forecasting the price of crude oil," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(2), pages 207-231, June.
    11. repec:kap:iaecre:v:12:y:2006:i:3:p:390-394 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ghandi, Abbas & Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia, 2012. "Do Iran’s buy-back service contracts lead to optimal production? The case of Soroosh and Nowrooz," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 181-190.
    13. Michael Ye & John Zyren & Joanne Shore, 2006. "Short-Run Crude Oil Price and Surplus Production Capacity," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 390-394, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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