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Asymmetric dynamics in correlations of treasury and swap markets: Evidence from the US market

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  • Toyoshima, Yuki
  • Tamakoshi, Go
  • Hamori, Shigeyuki

Abstract

Using the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (A-DCC) model developed by Cappiello et al. (2006), this paper empirically analyzes the conditional correlation between treasury and swap markets from February 9, 2006 to May 31, 2011, and makes two key contributions. First, the dynamics of the conditional correlation of only the 2-year maturity differs from those of other maturities. These patterns might be explained by the fact that a 2-year maturity is easily affected by market forecasts of monetary policy changes by the Federal Reserve Board. Second, the financial crisis dummies (ξ1) are all negative in particular with significance at the 5% level for 7 year, 10 year, and 30 year maturities. This result indicates that arbitrage transactions between treasuries and swaps have not taken place on a sufficient scale during the financial crisis period. As Ito (2010) points out, market participants have been uncertain about the direction of the monetary policies of these financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Toyoshima, Yuki & Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Asymmetric dynamics in correlations of treasury and swap markets: Evidence from the US market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 381-394.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:2:p:381-394
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2011.12.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "EU Accession, Financial Integration, and Contagion Effects: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of CEEC-3 Bond Markets," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(2), pages 179-189, October.
    3. Toyoshima, Yuki & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2013. "Asymmetric dynamics in stock market correlations: Evidence from Japan and Singapore," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 117-123.
    4. El Abed, Riadh & Zardoub, Amna, 2017. "Time varying and asymmetric effect between sovereign credit market and financial market: The asymmetric DCC model," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-97, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Anokye M. Adam & Kwabena Kyei & Simiso Moyo & Ryan Gill & Emmanuel N. Gyamfi, 2022. "Multifrequency network for SADC exchange rate markets using EEMD-based DCCA," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 145-166, January.
    6. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "On the Time-varying Linkages among the London Interbank Offer Rates for Major European Currencies," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(1), pages 46-53, January.
    7. Mitra, Sovan & Date, Paresh & Mamon, Rogemar & Wang, I-Chieh, 2013. "Pricing and risk management of interest rate swaps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 102-111.
    8. Riadh Abed & Amna Zardoub, 2019. "On the co-movements among gold and other financial markets: a multivariate time-varying asymmetric approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 701-719, October.
    9. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "An asymmetric DCC analysis of correlations among bank CDS indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 475-481, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model; Treasury market; Swap market; Financial crisis; Contagion effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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