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Long-term real dynamic investment planning

Author

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  • Gerrard, Russell
  • Hiabu, Munir
  • Nielsen, Jens Perch
  • Vodička, Peter

Abstract

When long-term savers plan for retirement they need to know their investment prospects in terms of real income (Merton, 2014). While inflation has traditionally been considered as a complication in financial analysis and financial practise, we obtain enhanced predictability and model fit if the real returns are targeted in conjunction with earnings-by-price minus inflation as predictor. For this latter case, we propose an investment strategy of updating the simple classical Merton proportion as we go along. This simple strategy is very close to the complicated theoretically optimal solution but has comparably much lower parameter uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerrard, Russell & Hiabu, Munir & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Vodička, Peter, 2020. "Long-term real dynamic investment planning," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 90-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:92:y:2020:i:c:p:90-103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.03.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2021. "Short-Term Exuberance and Long-Term Stability: A Simultaneous Optimization of Stock Return Predictions for Short and Long Horizons," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Gerrard, Russell & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Vodička, Peter, 2023. "On optimal constrained investment strategies for long-term savers in stochastic environments and probability hedging," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(2), pages 948-962.
    3. Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2020. "Short-Term Exuberance and long-term stability: A simultaneous optimization of stock return predictions for short and long horizons," Graz Economics Papers 2020-20, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    4. Parastoo Mousavi, 2021. "Debt-by-Price Ratio, End-of-Year Economic Growth, and Long-Term Prediction of Stock Returns," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-18, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-term Investment; Forecasting Returns; Nonmyopic Strategy; Optimal Investment; Strategy; Econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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