IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18768.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory

Author

Listed:
  • John H. Cochrane

Abstract

Mean-variance portfolio theory can apply to the streams of payoffs such as dividends following an initial investment, in place of one-period returns. This description is especially useful when returns are not independent over time and investors have non-marketed income. Investors hedge their outside income streams, and then their optimal payoff is split between an indexed perpetuity - the risk-free payoff - and a long-run mean-variance efficient payoff. "Long-run" moments sum over time as well as states of nature. In equilibrium, long-run expected returns vary with long-run market betas and outside- income betas. State-variable hedges do not appear in optimal payoffs or this equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • John H. Cochrane, 2013. "A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory," NBER Working Papers 18768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18768
    Note: AP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18768.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven J. Davis & Felix Kubler & Paul Willen, 2006. "Borrowing Costs and the Demand for Equity over the Life Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 348-362, May.
    2. Steven J. Davis & Paul Willen, 2013. "Occupation-Level Income Shocks and Asset Returns: Their Covariance and Implications for Portfolio Choice," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03n04), pages 1-53.
    3. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    4. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    5. Hyeng Keun Koo, 1998. "Consumption and Portfolio Selection with Labor Income: A Continuous Time Approach," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 49-65, January.
    6. Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, April.
    7. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2005. "Optimal Life‐Cycle Asset Allocation: Understanding the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 869-904, April.
    8. Mayers, David, 1973. "Nonmarketable Assets and the Determination of Capital Asset Prices in the Absence of a Riskless Asset," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 258-267, April.
    9. He, Hua & Pages, Henri F, 1993. "Labor Income, Borrowing Constraints, and Equilibrium Asset Prices," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(4), pages 663-696, October.
    10. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Lagnado, Ronald, 1997. "Strategic asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1377-1403, June.
    11. He, Hua & Pearson, Neil D., 1991. "Consumption and portfolio policies with incomplete markets and short-sale constraints: The infinite dimensional case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 259-304, August.
    12. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    13. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2002. "Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1201-1238, June.
    14. Antonios Sangvinatsos & Jessica A. Wachter, 2005. "Does the Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis Matter for Long‐Term Investors?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 179-230, February.
    15. Ross, Stephen A, 1978. "A Simple Approach to the Valuation of Risky Streams," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 453-475, July.
    16. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    17. Wachter, Jessica A., 2002. "Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 63-91, March.
    18. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
    19. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2000. "Stochastic Interest Rates and the Bond-Stock Mix," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 4(2), pages 197-210.
    20. Vicky Henderson, 2002. "Valuation Of Claims On Nontraded Assets Using Utility Maximization," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 351-373, October.
    21. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    22. Kim, Tong Suk & Omberg, Edward, 1996. "Dynamic Nonmyopic Portfolio Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 141-161.
    23. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
    24. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    25. Lucie Teplå, 2000. "Optimal Hedging and Valuation of Nontraded Assets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 4(3), pages 231-251.
    26. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 2000. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 1-26, January.
    27. Duffie, Darrell & Fleming, Wendell & Soner, H. Mete & Zariphopoulou, Thaleia, 1997. "Hedging in incomplete markets with HARA utility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 753-782, May.
    28. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
    29. Lynch, Anthony W. & Tan, Sinan, 2011. "Labor income dynamics at business-cycle frequencies: Implications for portfolio choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 333-359, August.
    30. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1993. "Nontraded assets in incomplete markets : Pricing and portfolio choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1149-1168, June.
    31. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    32. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    33. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1163-1198, June.
    34. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa‐Clara, 2006. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection by Augmenting the Asset Space," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2187-2217, October.
    35. Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long‐Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 433-470, April.
    36. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495.
    37. Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, August.
    38. Lynch, Anthony W., 2001. "Portfolio choice and equity characteristics: characterizing the hedging demands induced by return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 67-130, October.
    39. Henderson, Vicky, 2005. "Explicit solutions to an optimal portfolio choice problem with stochastic income," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1237-1266, July.
    40. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Munk, Claus, 2000. "Optimal consumption/investment policies with undiversifiable income risk and liquidity constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(9), pages 1315-1343, August.
    42. Schroder, Mark & Skiadas, Costis, 1999. "Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Selection with Stochastic Differential Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 68-126, November.
    43. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    44. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
    45. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Xavier Gabaix, 2007. "Linearity-Generating Processes: A Modelling Tool Yielding Closed Forms for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 13430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Jun Liu, 2007. "Portfolio Selection in Stochastic Environments," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 1-39, January.
    48. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    49. Rui Yao, 2005. "Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Choices with Risky Housing and Borrowing Constraints," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 197-239.
    50. Heaton, John, 1993. "The Interaction between Time-Nonseparable Preferences and Time Aggregation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 353-385, March.
    51. Wachter, Jessica A., 2003. "Risk aversion and allocation to long-term bonds," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 325-333, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    2. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    4. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    5. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2005. "Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle in the Presence of 'Trickle Down' Labor Income," NBER Working Papers 11247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Munk, Claus & Sørensen, Carsten, 2010. "Dynamic asset allocation with stochastic income and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 433-462, June.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chanb & M. Viceira, 2013. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part II, chapter 39, pages 809-848, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2012. "The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 266-293.
    9. Alain Bensoussan & Bong-Gyu Jang & Seyoung Park, 2016. "Unemployment Risks and Optimal Retirement in an Incomplete Market," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1015-1032, August.
    10. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Tebaldi, Claudio, 2004. "Illiquid Assets and Optimal Portfolio Choice," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7q65t12x, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    11. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2008. "Life-cycle asset allocation with annuity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3590-3612, November.
    12. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    13. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 29-74.
    14. Hubar, Sylwia & Koulovatianos, Christos & Li, Jian, 2020. "The role of labor-income risk in household risk-taking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    15. Weinbaum, David, 2005. "Subsistence consumption, habit formation and the demand for long-term bonds," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 273-287.
    16. Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Michael Stamos, 2006. "Life-Cycle Asset Allocation with Annuity Markets: Is Longevity Insurance a Good Deal?," Working Papers wp146, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    17. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    18. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco & Francisco J. Gomes & Pascal J. Maenhout, 2001. "Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 439-482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Laborda, Ricardo & Olmo, Jose, 2017. "Optimal asset allocation for strategic investors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 970-987.
    20. Castaneda, Pablo & Rudolph, Heinz P., 2011. "Upgrading investment regulations in second pillar pension systems : a proposal for Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5775, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18768. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.