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Ruin by dynamic contagion claims

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  • Dassios, Angelos
  • Zhao, Hongbiao

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a risk process with the arrival of claims modelled by a dynamic contagion process, a generalisation of the Cox process and Hawkes process introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011). We derive results for the infinite horizon model that are generalisations of the Cramér–Lundberg approximation, Lundberg’s fundamental equation, some asymptotics as well as bounds for the probability of ruin. Special attention is given to the case of exponential jumps and a numerical example is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2012. "Ruin by dynamic contagion claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 93-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:51:y:2012:i:1:p:93-106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2012.03.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans Gerber & Elias Shiu, 1998. "On the Time Value of Ruin," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 48-72.
    2. Gabriele Stabile & Giovanni Luca Torrisi, 2010. "Risk Processes with Non-stationary Hawkes Claims Arrivals," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 415-429, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Swishchuk, Anatoliy & Zagst, Rudi & Zeller, Gabriela, 2021. "Hawkes processes in insurance: Risk model, application to empirical data and optimal investment," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PA), pages 107-124.
    2. Angelos Dassios & Hongbiao Zhao, 2014. "A Markov Chain Model for Contagion," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-22, November.
    3. Cao, Jingyi & Landriault, David & Li, Bin, 2020. "Optimal reinsurance-investment strategy for a dynamic contagion claim model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 206-215.
    4. Kyungsub Lee, 2022. "Application of Hawkes volatility in the observation of filtered high-frequency price process in tick structures," Papers 2207.05939, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    5. Angelos Dassios & Xin Dong, 2014. "Stationarity of Bivariate Dynamic Contagion Processes," Papers 1405.5842, arXiv.org.
    6. Yang Shen & Bin Zou, 2021. "Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection in Contagious Markets," Papers 2110.09417, arXiv.org.
    7. Lingjiong Zhu, 2015. "A State-Dependent Dual Risk Model," Papers 1510.03920, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    8. Angelos Dassios & Hongbiao Zhao, 2017. "Efficient Simulation of Clustering Jumps with CIR Intensity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(6), pages 1494-1515, December.
    9. Dassios, Angelos & Jang, Jiwook & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2019. "A generalised CIR process with externally-exciting and self-exciting jumps and its applications in insurance and finance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102043, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Dassios, Angelos & Jang, Jiwook & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2015. "A risk model with renewal shot-noise Cox process," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 55-65.
    11. Dassios, Angelos & Jang, Jiwook & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2015. "A risk model with renewal shot-noise Cox process," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64051, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Angelos Dassios & Jiwook Jang & Hongbiao Zhao, 2019. "A Generalised CIR Process with Externally-Exciting and Self-Exciting Jumps and Its Applications in Insurance and Finance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, October.
    13. Lee, Kyungsub & Seo, Byoung Ki, 2017. "Modeling microstructure price dynamics with symmetric Hawkes and diffusion model using ultra-high-frequency stock data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 154-183.
    14. Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2017. "A generalised contagion process with an application to credit risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68558, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Hillairet, Caroline & Réveillac, Anthony & Rosenbaum, Mathieu, 2023. "An expansion formula for Hawkes processes and application to cyber-insurance derivatives," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 89-119.
    16. Angelos Dassios & Hongbiao Zhao, 2017. "A Generalized Contagion Process With An Application To Credit Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-33, February.
    17. Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2017. "Efficient simulation of clustering jumps with CIR intensity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 74205, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Hainaut, Donatien, 2016. "A bivariate Hawkes process for interest rate modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 180-196.
    19. Jang, Jiwook & Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2018. "Moments of renewal shot-noise processes and their applications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87428, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Jang, Jiwook & Dassios, Angelos, 2013. "A bivariate shot noise self-exciting process for insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 524-532.
    21. Jiwook Jang & Rosy Oh, 2020. "A Bivariate Compound Dynamic Contagion Process for Cyber Insurance," Papers 2007.04758, arXiv.org.
    22. Hainaut, Donatien, 2017. "Contagion modeling between the financial and insurance markets with time changed processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 63-77.
    23. Hansjoerg Albrecher & Pablo Azcue & Nora Muler, 2023. "Optimal dividend strategies for a catastrophe insurer," Papers 2311.05781, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic contagion process; Ruin probability; Generalised Lundberg’s fundamental equation; Cramér–Lundberg approximation; Change of measure; Martingale method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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