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Valuing guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits by a change of numéraire approach

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  • Huang, Yiming
  • Mamon, Rogemar
  • Xiong, Heng

Abstract

Three correlated risk factors, namely, financial, mortality and lapse risks, are modelled in an integrated way to support the valuation of guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits (GMAB). The dynamics of such risk factors under the risk-adjusted measure needed for valuation are derived. A sequence of reference probability measure changes is employed to obtain a compact and implementable price representations. We demonstrate how a change of numéraire approach facilitates the valuation of a GMAB rider in a variable annuity. A numerical illustration is presented to confirm the computational efficiency and accuracy of our proposed valuation methodology. In particular, our proposed approach on average takes only 0.07% of the computing time for the Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation technique to complete the valuation calculation. Furthermore, the standard errors of our approach's results are lower than those obtained from the MC-based computations. A sensitivity analysis is also performed with respect to various parameters. When there are no renewal options in a GMAB contract, we get the special case of a guaranteed minimum maturity benefit for which a closed-form valuation solution is established.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Yiming & Mamon, Rogemar & Xiong, Heng, 2022. "Valuing guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits by a change of numéraire approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:103:y:2022:i:c:p:1-26
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2021.11.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Ruihong & Saunders, David & Weng, Chengguo, 2023. "Two-phase selection of representative contracts for valuation of large variable annuity portfolios," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 293-309.
    2. Ankush Agarwal & Christian-Oliver Ewald & Yongjie Wang, 2023. "Hedging longevity risk in defined contribution pension schemes," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-34, December.
    3. Zhang, Zhimin & Zhong, Wei, 2024. "Efficient valuation of guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits in regime switching jump diffusion models with lapse risk," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 478(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Variable annuities; Investment guarantee; Stochastic model; Change of numéraire; Lapse risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics

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