IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/apacel/v27y2013i1p110-126.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real exchange rate appreciation, resource boom, and policy reform in Myanmar

Author

Listed:
  • Koji Kubo

Abstract

In the five-year period from 2006 to 2011, the real exchange rate of the Myanmar kyat appreciated 200 percent, signifying that the value of the US dollar in Myanmar diminished to one third of its previous level. While the resource boom is suspected as a source of the real exchange rate appreciation, its aggravation is related to administrative controls on foreign exchange and imports. First, foreign exchange controls prevented replacement of the negotiated transactions of foreign exchange with the bank intermediation. This hampered government interventions in the market. Second, import controls repressed imports, aggravating excess supply of foreign exchange. Relaxation of administrative controls is necessary for moderating currency appreciation.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Koji Kubo, 2013. "Real exchange rate appreciation, resource boom, and policy reform in Myanmar," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 27(1), pages 110-126, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:apacel:v:27:y:2013:i:1:p:110-126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/apel.12005
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiguel, Miguel & O'Connell, Stephen A, 1995. "Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 10(1), pages 21-52, February.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Jordan: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/119, International Monetary Fund.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Japan: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/208, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Chile: Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/260, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    7. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    8. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    9. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    10. Masahiro Hori & Yu Ching Wong, 2008. "Efficiency Costs of Myanmar’s Multiple Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 2008/199, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Myanmar: Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/104, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth," IMF Working Papers 2010/271, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2009. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 777-801, September.
    16. Amit Biswas & Sugata Marjit, 2005. "Mis-invoicing and Trade Policy," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 189-205.
    17. Usui, Norio, 1996. "Policy adjustments to the oil boom and their evaluation: The Dutch disease in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 887-900, May.
    18. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    19. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
    20. Sean TURNELL, 2011. "Fundamentals of Myanmar's Macroeconomy: A Political Economy Perspective," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 6(1), pages 136-153, June.
    21. Thanh, Nguyen Ngoc & Kalirajan, Kaliappa, 2006. "Can devaluation be effective in improving the balance of payments in Vietnam?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 467-476, May.
    22. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Suriname: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/281, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Kubo, Koji, 2012. "Trade policies and trade mis-reporting in Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 326, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    24. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W. & Kutan, Ali M., 2008. "Do nominal devaluations lead to real devaluations? Evidence from 89 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 644-670, October.
    25. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ronald Findlay & Cyn-Young Park & Jean-Pierre A. Verbiest, 2016. "Myanmar: building economic foundations," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 30(1), pages 42-64, May.
    2. Koji Kubo, 2014. "Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions: a gravity model analysis," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Sthabandith Insisienmay & Vanthana Nolintha & Innwon Park, 2015. "Dutch disease in the Lao economy: Diagnosis and treatment," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 403-423, December.
    4. Koji Kubo, 2013. "Rice Yield Gap between Myanmar and Vietnam: A Matter of Price Policy or Public Investment in Technology?," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, June.
    5. Kudo, Toshihiro, 2013. "Myanmar's apparel industry in the new international environment : prospects and challenges," IDE Discussion Papers 430, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koji Kubo, 2014. "Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions: a gravity model analysis," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, June.
    2. Koji Kubo, 2013. "Myanmar's two decades of partial transition to a market economy: a negative legacy for the new government," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 357-370, September.
    3. Darío Debowicz & Wajiha Saeed, 2014. "Exchange rate misalignment and economic development: the case of Pakistan," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 21014, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    4. Kojo, Naoko C., 2014. "Demystifying Dutch disease," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6981, The World Bank.
    5. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J., 2013. "Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 229-243.
    6. Elsa Fornero, 2015. "Economic-financial Literacy and (Sustainable) Pension Reforms: Why the Former is a Key Ingredient for the Latter," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 134, pages 6-16, January-F.
    7. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2013. "Origins and prospects of the Euro existential crisis," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/03, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    9. repec:bny:wpaper:0105 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Fabian Bornhorst & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Tests of German Resilience," IMF Working Papers 2012/239, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Raquel Almeida Ramos, 2012. "Financial Flows and Exchange Rates: Challenges Faced by Developing Countries," Working Papers 97, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    13. Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 2001. "Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate regime, and trade volume: evidence from the UK-US export function (1889-1999)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 87-94, July.
    14. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
    15. Kubo, Koji, 2012. "Restructuring the state budget system for disinflation and exchange rate unification in Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 320, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    16. Wang, Di & Wang, Dong & Wang, Weiren, 2012. "A case of Timor-Leste: From independence to instability or prosperity?," MPRA Paper 43751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Berke, Burcu & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Exchange rate volatility in the eurozone," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-23.
    18. Zainab Jehan & Iffat Irshad, 2020. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth inPakistan: The Role of Financial Development," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 81-99.
    19. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    20. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-71, March.
    21. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:apacel:v:27:y:2013:i:1:p:110-126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14678411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.