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Monetary news in the United States and business cycles in emerging economies

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  • Vicondoa, Alejandro

Abstract

This paper identifies anticipated (news) and unanticipated (surprise) shocks to the U.S. Fed Funds rate using Fed Funds futures contracts, and assesses their propagation to emerging economies. Anticipated shocks are identified as the expected change in the Fed Funds rate orthogonal to expected U.S. business cycle conditions while unanticipated shocks are the one-step ahead forecast error. Anticipated shocks explain around half of the narrative series of U.S. monetary policy shocks. To identify the effects of both shocks, I estimate a Panel VAR using a sample of emerging economies. An anticipated 25 basis points contractionary U.S. interest rate shock induces a fall of 0.5% in GDP from its trend two quarters before the shock materializes. Both anticipated and unanticipated changes in the U.S. interest rate cause significant and quantitatively similar effects. The increase of the U.S. BAA corporate spread in response to both shocks significantly exacerbates the response of emerging economies. After accounting for anticipation, U.S. interest rate shocks explain 14% of business cycle fluctuations in emerging economies.

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  • Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2019. "Monetary news in the United States and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 79-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:117:y:2019:i:c:p:79-90
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.12.002
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    Cited by:

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    3. Katharina Bergant & Francesco Grigoli & Niels‐Jakob Hansen & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(6), pages 1405-1438, September.
    4. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
    5. Santiago Camara, 2021. "Spillovers of US Interest Rates: Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Papers 2111.08631, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    6. Helmut Franken & Alejandro Jara, 2023. "Monetary Policy Tightening and Bank Lending Standards: Evidence from the Chilean Bank Loan Survey," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 996, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Walerych, Małgorzata & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2021. "Fed and ECB monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Marco Rojas, 2022. "Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies and the International Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 966, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Walerych, Małgorzata & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2020. "When the Fed sneezes, the whole world catches the cold, when the ECB - only Europe," MPRA Paper 100899, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    12. Santiago Camara & Sebastian Ramirez Venegas, 2022. "The Transmission of US Monetary Policy Shocks: The Role of Investment & Financial Heterogeneity," Papers 2209.11150, arXiv.org.
    13. Wongi Kim & Kyunghun Kim, 2022. "Effect of news and noise shocks of US monetary policy on economic fluctuations in emerging market economies," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 1862-1893, November.
    14. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2022. "On the Propagation Mechanism of International Real Interest Rate Spillovers: Evidence from More than 200 Years of Data," Working Papers 202212, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Gai, Prasanna & Tong, Eric, 2022. "Information spillovers of US monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    16. Madeline Hanson & Daniela Hauser & Romanos Priftis, 2021. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes," Staff Working Papers 21-41, Bank of Canada.
    17. Carlos Alba & Julio A. Carrillo & Raúl Ibarra, 2024. "Information Effects of US Monetary Policy Announcements on Emerging Economies: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2024-14, Banco de México.
    18. Maurer, Tim D. & Nitschka, Thomas, 2023. "Stock market evidence on the international transmission channels of US monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    19. Santiago Camara, 2021. "US Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: Information effects & Financial Flows," Papers 2108.01026, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    20. Carrillo, Julio A. & Elizondo, Rocio & Hernández-Román, Luis G., 2020. "Inquiry on the transmission of U.S. aggregate shocks to Mexico: A SVAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    21. Tomás Gómez & Alejandro Jara & David Moreno, 2020. "International and domestic interactions of macroprudential and monetary policies: the case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 870, Central Bank of Chile.

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