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Causes, cost consequences, and risk implications of accidents in US hazardous liquid pipeline infrastructure

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  • Restrepo, Carlos E.
  • Simonoff, Jeffrey S.
  • Zimmerman, Rae

Abstract

In this paper the causes and consequences of accidents in US hazardous liquid pipelines that result in the unplanned release of hazardous liquids are examined. Understanding how different causes of accidents are associated with consequence measures can provide important inputs into risk management for this (and other) critical infrastructure systems. Data on 1582 accidents related to hazardous liquid pipelines for the period 2002–2005 are analyzed. The data were obtained from the US Department of Transportation’s Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS). Of the 25 different causes of accidents included in the data the most common ones are equipment malfunction, corrosion, material and weld failures, and incorrect operation. This paper focuses on one type of consequence–various costs associated with these pipeline accidents–and causes associated with them. The following economic consequence measures related to accident cost are examined: the value of the product lost; public, private, and operator property damage; and cleanup, recovery, and other costs. Logistic regression modeling is used to determine what factors are associated with nonzero product loss cost, nonzero property damage cost and nonzero cleanup and recovery costs. The factors examined include the system part involved in the accident, location characteristics (offshore versus onshore location, occurrence in a high consequence area), and whether there was liquid ignition, an explosion, and/or a liquid spill. For the accidents associated with nonzero values for these consequence measures (weighted) least squares regression is used to understand the factors related to them, as well as how the different initiating causes of the accidents are associated with the consequence measures. The results of these models are then used to construct illustrative scenarios for hazardous liquid pipeline accidents. These scenarios suggest that the magnitude of consequence measures such as value of product lost, property damage and cleanup and recovery costs are highly dependent on accident cause and other accident characteristics. The regression models used to construct these scenarios constitute an analytical tool that industry decision-makers can use to estimate the possible consequences of accidents in these pipeline systems by cause (and other characteristics) and to allocate resources for maintenance and to reduce risk factors in these systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Restrepo, Carlos E. & Simonoff, Jeffrey S. & Zimmerman, Rae, 2009. "Causes, cost consequences, and risk implications of accidents in US hazardous liquid pipeline infrastructure," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 38-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ijocip:v:2:y:2009:i:1:p:38-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcip.2008.09.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rae Zimmerman & Carlos E. Restrepo & Jeffrey S. Simonoff & Lester B Lave, 2007. "Risk and Economic Costs of a Terrorist Attack on the Electric System," Chapters, in: Harry W Richardson & Peter Gordon & James E. Moore II (ed.), The Economic Costs and Consequences of Terrorism, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Jeffrey S. Simonoff & Carlos E. Restrepo & Rae Zimmerman, 2007. "Risk‐Management and Risk‐Analysis‐Based Decision Tools for Attacks on Electric Power," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 547-570, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vaezi, Ali & Verma, Manish, 2018. "Railroad transportation of crude oil in Canada: Developing long-term forecasts, and evaluating the impact of proposed pipeline projects," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 98-111.
    2. Singh, Abhishek Narain & Gupta, M.P. & Ojha, Amitabh, 2014. "Identifying critical infrastructure sectors and their dependencies: An Indian scenario," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 71-85.
    3. Qianxiang Zhu & Yuanqing Qin & Yue Zhao & Zhou Chunjie, 2020. "A hierarchical colored Petri net–based cyberattacks response strategy making approach for critical infrastructures," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 16(1), pages 15501477198, January.
    4. Siler-Evans, Kyle & Hanson, Alex & Sunday, Cecily & Leonard, Nathan & Tumminello, Michele, 2014. "Analysis of pipeline accidents in the United States from 1968 to 2009," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 257-269.
    5. Zhang, Qiongfang & Xu, Nan & Ersoy, Daniel & Liu, Yongming, 2022. "Manifold-based Conditional Bayesian network for aging pipe yield strength estimation with non-destructive measurements," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    6. Liu, Shengli & Liang, Yongtu, 2021. "Statistics of catastrophic hazardous liquid pipeline accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    7. Babak Omidvar & Hamid Karimi Kivi, 2016. "Multi-hazard failure probability analysis of gas pipelines for earthquake shaking, ground failure and fire following earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 703-720, May.
    8. Aalirezaei, Armin & Kabir, Dr. Golam & Khan, Md Saiful Arif, 2023. "Dynamic predictive analysis of the consequences of gas pipeline failures using a Bayesian network," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    9. Moahamed Younes El Bouti & Mohamed Allouch, 2018. "Analysis of 801 Work-Related Incidents in the Oil and Gas Industry That Occurred Between 2014 and 2016 in 6 Regions," Energy and Environment Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, June.
    10. Shengli, Liu & Yongtu, Liang, 2019. "Exploring the temporal structure of time series data for hazardous liquid pipeline incidents based on complex network theory," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    11. Zhao-ge Liu & Xiang-yang Li & Dilawar Khan Durrani, 2021. "Generating evacuation task plans for community typhoon emergencies: an integration of case-driven and model-driven approaches," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 745-774, March.
    12. Rae Zimmerman, 2009. "Making Infrastructure Competitive in an Urban World," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 626(1), pages 226-241, November.

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