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Multi-hazard failure probability analysis of gas pipelines for earthquake shaking, ground failure and fire following earthquake

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  • Babak Omidvar

    (University of Tehran)

  • Hamid Karimi Kivi

    (University of Tehran)

Abstract

This paper was aimed to provide a quantitative failure probability analysis for multiple hazards. To achieve this, the 1724-kPa (250 Psi) gas pipelines of one of the district neighborhoods of Tehran metropolitan are analyzed to establish the probability of damage against earthquake, fire and liquefaction as a multi-hazard case study. The pipeline is approximately 4 km long and is divided into 14 segments, each of which has 300 m length. We used probabilistic analysis to identify the sources of earthquakes in the area. We calculated the probability that an earthquake with a given maximum magnitude will occur, the probability of liquefaction, that of post-earthquake fires, and the probability of pipeline failure for each segment. In order to take into account uncertainty in the location of epicenters, different points on the North Ray fault were randomly selected as epicenters, and the analysis was carried out for each point. Finally, based on the proposed method, the upper bound of failure probability of the main pipeline resulting from multiple hazards was estimated to be 65.7 %. If ductile pipelines were installed, this amount could be reduced to 32.7 % which shows a reduction of 51.79 % of the upper bound of failure probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Babak Omidvar & Hamid Karimi Kivi, 2016. "Multi-hazard failure probability analysis of gas pipelines for earthquake shaking, ground failure and fire following earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 703-720, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:82:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2214-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2214-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Restrepo, Carlos E. & Simonoff, Jeffrey S. & Zimmerman, Rae, 2009. "Causes, cost consequences, and risk implications of accidents in US hazardous liquid pipeline infrastructure," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 38-50.
    2. Melanie Kappes & Margreth Keiler & Kirsten Elverfeldt & Thomas Glade, 2012. "Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1925-1958, November.
    3. Theresa Jefferson & Jack Harrald & Frank Fiedrich, 2012. "Linking infrastructure resilience to response requirements: the New Madrid Seismic Zone case," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 22-46.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruiz-Tagle, Andres & Lewis, Austin D. & Schell, Colin A. & Lever, Ernest & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "BaNTERA: A Bayesian Network for Third-Party Excavation Risk Assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    2. Zheng He & Negar Elhami Khorasani, 2022. "Identification and hierarchical structure of cause factors for fire following earthquake using data mining and interpretive structural modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 947-976, May.
    3. Tomoaki Nishino, 2023. "Probabilistic urban cascading multi-hazard risk assessment methodology for ground shaking and post-earthquake fires," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3165-3200, April.

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