IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/hepoli/v120y2016i1p81-88.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cohort effects on the need for health care and implications for health care planning in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Whittaker, William
  • Birch, Stephen
  • MacKenzie, Adrian
  • Murphy, Gail Tomblin

Abstract

The sustainability of publicly funded health care systems is an issue for governments around the world. The economic climate limits governments’ fiscal capacity to continue to devote an increasing share of public funds to health care. Meanwhile the demands for health care within populations continue to increase. Planning the future requirements for health care is typically based on applying current levels of health service use by age to demographic projections of the population. But changes in age-specific levels of health over time would undermine this ‘constant use by age’ assumption. We use representative Canadian survey data (Canadian Community Health Survey) covering the period 2001–2012, to identify the separate trends in demography (population ageing) and epidemiology (population health) on self-reported health. We propose an approach to estimating future health care requirements that incorporates cohort trends in health. Overall health care requirements for the population increase as the size and mean age of the population increase, but these effects are mitigated by cohort trends in health—we find the estimated need for health care is lower when models account for cohort effects in addition to age effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Whittaker, William & Birch, Stephen & MacKenzie, Adrian & Murphy, Gail Tomblin, 2016. "Cohort effects on the need for health care and implications for health care planning in Canada," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 81-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:120:y:2016:i:1:p:81-88
    DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2015.10.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168851015002584
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.healthpol.2015.10.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herbert L. Smith, 2008. "Advances in Age–Period–Cohort Analysis," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(3), pages 287-296, February.
    2. Stephen Birch & George Kephart & Gail Tomblin-Murphy & Linda O'Brien-Pallas & Rob Alder & Adrian MacKenzie, 2007. "Human Resources Planning and the Production of Health: A Needs-Based Analytical Framework," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 33(s1), pages 1-16, January.
    3. Tomblin Murphy, Gail & Kephart, George & Lethbridge, Lynn & O'Brien-Pallas, Linda & Birch, Stephen, 2009. "Planning for what? Challenging the assumptions of health human resources planning," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(2-3), pages 225-233, October.
    4. Christopher Winship & David J. Harding, 2008. "A Mechanism-Based Approach to the Identification of Age–Period–Cohort Models," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(3), pages 362-401, February.
    5. Robert M. O'Brien & Kenneth Hudson & Jean Stockard, 2008. "A Mixed Model Estimation of Age, Period, and Cohort Effects," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(3), pages 402-428, February.
    6. Linda G. Martin & Robert F. Schoeni & Vicki A. Freedman & Patricia Andreski, 2007. "Feeling Better? Trends in General Health Status," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 62(1), pages 11-21.
    7. Yang Yang & Kenneth C. Land, 2008. "Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys: Fixed or Random Effects?," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(3), pages 297-326, February.
    8. Wenjiang J. Fu, 2008. "A Smoothing Cohort Model in Age–Period–Cohort Analysis With Applications to Homicide Arrest Rates and Lung Cancer Mortality Rates," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(3), pages 327-361, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lenzen, Sabrina & Birch, Stephen, 2023. "From population numbers to population needs: Incorporating epidemiological change into health service planning in Australia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen Birch & Gail Tomblin Murphy & Adrian MacKenzie & William Whittaker & Thomas Mason, 2017. "Will the Need‐Based Planning of Health Human Resources Currently Undertaken in Several Countries Lead to Excess Supply and Inefficiency? A Comment on Basu and Pak," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 818-821, June.
    2. Eyal Bar-Haim & Louis Chauvel & Anne Hartung, 2018. "More Necessary and Less Sufficient: An Age-Period-Cohort Approach to Overeducation in Comparative Perspective," LIS Working papers 734, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    3. Aistov, Andrey, 2018. "Age-earnings profiles of different generations," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 50, pages 23-42.
    4. Tomblin Murphy, Gail & Kephart, George & Lethbridge, Lynn & O'Brien-Pallas, Linda & Birch, Stephen, 2009. "Planning for what? Challenging the assumptions of health human resources planning," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(2-3), pages 225-233, October.
    5. Lenzen, Sabrina & Birch, Stephen, 2023. "From population numbers to population needs: Incorporating epidemiological change into health service planning in Australia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    6. Anna Zajacova & Jennifer Karas Montez & Pamela Herd, 2014. "Socioeconomic Disparities in Health Among Older Adults and the Implications for the Retirement Age Debate: A Brief Report," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 69(6), pages 973-978.
    7. Dregan, Alex & Armstrong, David, 2009. "Age, cohort and period effects in the prevalence of sleep disturbances among older people: The impact of economic downturn," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 1432-1438, November.
    8. Stephen Birch, 2015. "Improving the Fiscal and Political Sustainability of Health Systems through Integrated Population Needs-Based Planning," Seminar Briefing 001616, Office of Health Economics.
    9. Maarten J. Bijlsma & Rhian M. Daniel & Fanny Janssen & Bianca L. De Stavola, 2017. "An Assessment and Extension of the Mechanism-Based Approach to the Identification of Age-Period-Cohort Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 721-743, April.
    10. Nicole Maestas & Julie Zissimopoulos, 2010. "How Longer Work Lives Ease the Crunch of Population Aging," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, pages 139-160.
    11. Zajacova, Anna & Montez, Jennifer Karas, 2018. "Explaining the increasing disability prevalence among mid-life US adults, 2002 to 2016," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 1-8.
    12. Mario Quaranta, 2016. "An Apathetic Generation? Cohorts’ Patterns of Political Participation in Italy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 793-812, February.
    13. Sarma, Sisira & Thind, Amardeep & Chu, Man-Kee, 2011. "Do new cohorts of family physicians work less compared to their older predecessors? The evidence from Canada," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(12), pages 2049-2058, June.
    14. Beck, Audrey N. & Finch, Brian K. & Lin, Shih-Fan & Hummer, Robert A. & Masters, Ryan K., 2014. "Racial disparities in self-rated health: Trends, explanatory factors, and the changing role of socio-demographics," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 163-177.
    15. Louis Chauvel & Martin Schr der, 2014. "Generational Inequalities and Welfare Regimes," LIS Working papers 606, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    16. Hui Liu & Zhenmei Zhang, 2013. "Disability Trends by Marital Status Among Older Americans, 1997–2010: An Examination by Gender and Race," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(1), pages 103-127, February.
    17. Marc Callens, 2017. "Long Term Trends in Life Satisfaction, 1973–2012: Flanders in Europe," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 107-127, January.
    18. Keyes, Katherine M. & Utz, Rebecca L. & Robinson, Whitney & Li, Guohua, 2010. "What is a cohort effect? Comparison of three statistical methods for modeling cohort effects in obesity prevalence in the United States, 1971-2006," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1100-1108, April.
    19. Pittau, Maria Grazia & Farcomeni, Alessio & Zelli, Roberto, 2016. "Has the attitude of US citizens towards redistribution changed over time?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 714-724.
    20. Till Bärnighausen & David Bloom, 2009. "Changing Research Perspectives on the Global Health Workforce," PGDA Working Papers 4609, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:120:y:2016:i:1:p:81-88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/healthpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.