Uniform global deforestation patterns — An empirical analysis

The forest transition (FT) hypothesis implies that changes in a region's forest cover follow a determinable pattern of decline and later re-expansion over time, which is supposed to be similar across regions and countries. Such a uniform pattern – if empirically proven and quantified – might help in establishing REDD+ baselines (i.e., references against which reductions in the emissions from deforestation and forest degradation of developing countries could be measured, and subsequently be rewarded). REDD+ baselines are required to be based on a globally standardised method and also to consider country-specific circumstances. These requirements might be fulfilled by applying the concept of forest transition in a baseline setting.