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Price discovery in government bond markets

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  • Valseth, Siri

Abstract

Price discovery in government bond markets is explored using Norwegian data including trades from both tiers of the market and dealer identities. The results show that while aggregate interdealer order flow explains one-fourth of daily yield changes, aggregate customer order flow has little explanatory power. Dealers are heterogeneously informed and appear to have different sources of information. While some dealers mainly rely on their customer trades, others appear to rely on skill in acquiring and interpreting other relevant information, suggesting that dealers play an independent role in the price discovery process.

Suggested Citation

  • Valseth, Siri, 2013. "Price discovery in government bond markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 127-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:16:y:2013:i:1:p:127-151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2012.04.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Czech, Robert & Huang, Shiyang & Lou, Dong & Wang, Tianyu, 2021. "Informed trading in government bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1253-1274.
    2. Péter Kondor & Gábor Pintér, 2022. "Clients' Connections: Measuring the Role of Private Information in Decentralized Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 505-544, February.
    3. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Pradhan, H.K. & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Dann, Susan, 2024. "Anatomy of sovereign yield behaviour using textual news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Piccotti, Louis R. & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2020. "Information shares in a two-tier FX market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-35.
    5. Carol Osler & Geir Bjonnes & Neophytos Kathitziotis, 2016. "Bid-Ask Spreads in OTC Markets," Working Papers 102, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    6. Wu, Lei & Liu, Chunlin & Meng, Qingbin & Zeng, Hongchao, 2018. "Price discovery in China's inter-bank bond market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 84-98.
    7. Geir H. Bjønnes & Carol L. Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2021. "Price discovery in two‐tier markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3109-3133, April.
    8. Alessandro Girardi & Claudio Impenna, 2013. "Price discovery in the Italian sovereign bonds market: the role of order flow," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 906, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Valseth, Siri, 2020. "Informed trading in hybrid bond markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    10. Valseth, Siri, 2016. "Informed trading in Hybrid Bond Markets," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016/13, University of Stavanger.
    11. Valseth, Siri, 2023. "Repo market frictions and intermediation in electronic bond markets," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2023/1, University of Stavanger.
    12. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G. & Kinateder, Harald, 2021. "Information shares and market quality before and during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dealers; Government bond markets; Order flow; Price discovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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