US dollar and oil market uncertainty: New evidence from explainable machine learning
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105375
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Scarcioffolo, Alexandre R. & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2021. "Regime-switching energy price volatility: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 336-356.
- Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2016.
"Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar,"
Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 147-157.
- Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon, 2015. "Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Working Papers 2015-25, CEPII research center.
- Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon, 2016. "Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-2, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon, 2016. "Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Post-Print hal-01386047, HAL.
- Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon, 2016. "Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Working Papers hal-04141609, HAL.
- Michel A. Robe & Jonathan Wallen, 2016. "Fundamentals, Derivatives Market Information and Oil Price Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 317-344, April.
- Sami Ben Jabeur & Rabeh Khalfaoui & Wissal Ben Arfi, 2021. "The effect of green energy, global environmental indexes, and stock markets in predicting oil price crashes: Evidence from explainable machine learning," Post-Print hal-03797577, HAL.
- Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 882-887, November.
- Liu, Zhenhua & Tseng, Hui-Kuan & Wu, Jy S. & Ding, Zhihua, 2020. "Implied volatility relationships between crude oil and the U.S. stock markets: Dynamic correlation and spillover effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
- Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
- Lei Ming & Yao Shen & Shenggang Yang & Minyi Dong, 2022. "Contagion or flight‐to‐quality? The linkage between oil price and the US dollar based on the local Gaussian approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 722-750, April.
- Thomas Lindner & Jonas Puck & Alain Verbeke, 2020. "Misconceptions about multicollinearity in international business research: Identification, consequences, and remedies," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 51(3), pages 283-298, April.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Li, Leon, 2022. "The dynamic interrelations of oil-equity implied volatility indexes under low and high volatility-of-volatility risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
- Sami Ben Jabeur & Salma Mefteh-Wali & Jean-Laurent Viviani, 2021. "Forecasting gold price with the XGBoost algorithm and SHAP interaction values," Post-Print hal-03331805, HAL.
- Zhou, Jie & Sun, Mei & Han, Dun & Gao, Cuixia, 2021. "Analysis of oil price fluctuation under the influence of crude oil stocks and US dollar index — Based on time series network model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016.
"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 21633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J., 2015. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64986, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEP Discussion Papers dp1379, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Davis, Steven & Bloom, Nicholas & Baker, Scott, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 10900, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," Economics Working Papers 15111, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Bams, Dennis & Blanchard, Gildas & Honarvar, Iman & Lehnert, Thorsten, 2017. "Does oil and gold price uncertainty matter for the stock market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-285.
- Mei, Dexiang & Zeng, Qing & Cao, Xiang & Diao, Xiaohua, 2019. "Uncertainty and oil volatility: New evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 155-163.
- Matteo Maggiori, 2017.
"Financial Intermediation, International Risk Sharing, and Reserve Currencies,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3038-3071, October.
- Matteo Maggiori, 2012. "Financial Intermediation, International Risk Sharing, and Reserve Currencies," 2012 Meeting Papers 146, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Matteo Maggiori, 2013. "Financial Intermediation, International Risk Sharing, and Reserve Currencies," Working Paper 181796, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Benhmad, François, 2012. "Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1505-1514.
- Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009.
"Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
- Q. Farooq Akram, 2008. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Working Paper 2008/12, Norges Bank.
- Dimpfl, Thomas & Peter, Franziska J., 2018. "Analyzing volatility transmission using group transfer entropy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 368-376.
- Thomas Lindner & Jonas Puck & Alain Verbeke, 2022. "Beyond addressing multicollinearity: Robust quantitative analysis and machine learning in international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(7), pages 1307-1314, September.
- Dai, Zhifeng & Kang, Jie & Hu, Yangli, 2021. "Efficient predictability of oil price: The role of number of IPOs and U.S. dollar index," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2020. "Oil and asset classes implied volatilities: Investment strategies and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
- John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010.
"Oil Price Uncertainty,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
- John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to estimate structural VAR-GARCH-M model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00052, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1995. "Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-528, June.
- Kisswani, Khalid M., 2021. "(A)symmetric time-varying effects of uncertainty fluctuations on oil price volatility: A nonlinear ARDL investigation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
- Lyu, Yongjian & Wei, Yu & Hu, Yingyi & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Good volatility, bad volatility and economic uncertainty: Evidence from the crude oil futures market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
- Wei, Yu & Liu, Jing & Lai, Xiaodong & Hu, Yang, 2017. "Which determinant is the most informative in forecasting crude oil market volatility: Fundamental, speculation, or uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 141-150.
- Robert T. Daigler & Ann Marie Hibbert & Ivelina Pavlova, 2014. "Examining the Return–Volatility Relation for Foreign Exchange: Evidence from the Euro VIX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 74-92, January.
- Ghosh, Sajal, 2009. "Import demand of crude oil and economic growth: Evidence from India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 699-702, February.
- Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
- Fenghua Wen & Jihong Xiao & Chuangxia Huang & Xiaohua Xia, 2018. "Interaction between oil and US dollar exchange rate: nonlinear causality, time-varying influence and structural breaks in volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 319-334, January.
- Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Zebende, Gilney F., 2014. "Oil and US dollar exchange rate dependence: A detrended cross-correlation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-139.
- Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009.
"Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2006. "Unit Root Tests Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time Under Both the Null and Alternative Hypotheses," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-052, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2010. "The Effects of Uncertainty about Oil Prices in G-7," Working Papers 200840, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
- Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.
- Wang, Yu Shan & Chueh, Yen Ling, 2013. "Dynamic transmission effects between the interest rate, the US dollar, and gold and crude oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 792-798.
- Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "News-based equity market uncertainty and crude oil volatility," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Aimer, Najmi & Lusta, Abdulmula, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on economic policy uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
- Kocaarslan, Baris & Soytas, Ugur, 2021. "Reserve currency and the volatility of clean energy stocks: The role of uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
- Le, Thai-Ha & Boubaker, Sabri & Bui, Manh Tien & Park, Donghyun, 2023.
"On the volatility of WTI crude oil prices: A time-varying approach with stochastic volatility,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
- T.-H. Le & Sabri Boubaker & M.T. Bui & D. Park, 2023. "On the Volatility of WTI Crude Oil Prices: A Time-Varying Approach with Stochastic Volatility," Post-Print hal-04433059, HAL.
- Kocaarslan, Baris & Soytas, Mehmet Ali & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "The asymmetric impact of oil prices, interest rates and oil price uncertainty on unemployment in the US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
- Xiao, Jihong & Liu, Hong, 2023. "The time-varying impact of uncertainty on oil market fear: Does climate policy uncertainty matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
- Panpan Wang & Xiaoxing Liu & Tsungwu Ho & Yishi Li, 2024. "The effect of the US dollar exchange rate on oil prices: An oil financialization perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1301-1317, April.
- Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Jeguirim, Khaled & Rault, Christophe, 2022.
"The determinants of crude oil prices: Evidence from ARDL and nonlinear ARDL approaches,"
Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
- Leila Ben Salem & Ridha Nouira & Khaled Jeguirim & Christophe Rault, 2022. "The Determinants of Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series 10050, CESifo.
- Salem, Leila Ben & Nouira, Ridha & Jeguirim, Khaled & Rault, Christophe, 2022. "The Determinants of Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL Approaches," IZA Discussion Papers 15666, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Leila Ben Salem & Ridha Nouira & Khaled Jeguirim & Christophe Rault, 2022. "The determinants of crude oil prices: Evidence from ARDL, and non linear ARSL approaches," Working Papers hal-04638858, HAL.
- Leila BEN SALEM & Ridha NOUIRA & KHALED JEGUIRIM & Christophe RAULT, 2022. "The determinants of crude oil prices: Evidence from ARDL, and nonlinear ARSL approaches," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2958, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
- Leila Ben Salem & Ridha Nouira & Khaled Jeguirim & Christophe Rault, 2022. "The determinants of crude oil prices: Evidence from ARDL and nonlinear ARDL approaches," Post-Print hal-04143946, HAL.
- Scarcioffolo, Alexandre R. & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2021. "Regime-switching energy price volatility: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 336-356.
- Yanhong Feng & Dilong Xu & Pierre Failler & Tinghui Li, 2020. "Research on the Time-Varying Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Crude Oil Price Fluctuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-24, August.
- Li, Lei & Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "Exogenous shocks and the spillover effects between uncertainty and oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 224-234.
- Kocaarslan, Baris & Soytas, Ugur, 2023. "The role of major markets in predicting the U.S. municipal green bond market performance: New evidence from machine learning models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
- Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
- Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2020. "Factors driving oil price —— from the perspective of United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
- Youssef, Manel & Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "Modeling the relationship between oil and USD exchange rates: Evidence from a regime-switching-quantile regression approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
- Chowdhury, Kushal Banik & Garg, Bhavesh, 2022. "Has COVID-19 intensified the oil price–exchange rate nexus?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 280-298.
- Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Systemic spillover dynamics of crude oil with Indian Financial indicators in post WPI revision and COVID era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
- Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Balli, Faruk & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & de Bruin, Anne, 2020. "Energy commodity uncertainties and the systematic risk of US industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
- Xiafei Li & Yu Wei & Xiaodan Chen & Feng Ma & Chao Liang & Wang Chen, 2022. "Which uncertainty is powerful to forecast crude oil market volatility? New evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4279-4297, October.
- Asad Dossani & John Elder, 2024. "Uncertainty and investment: Evidence from domestic oil rigs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 323-340, February.
- Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021.
"OPEC news and jumps in the oil market,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
- Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Seong-Min Yoon, 2020. "OPEC News and Jumps in the Oil Market," Working Papers 202053, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
More about this item
Keywords
US dollar; Oil market uncertainty; Gold market uncertainty; Machine learning; Explainable artificial intelligence model;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:64:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324004057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.