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Contagion or flight‐to‐quality? The linkage between oil price and the US dollar based on the local Gaussian approach

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  • Lei Ming
  • Yao Shen
  • Shenggang Yang
  • Minyi Dong

Abstract

The paper utilizes the multilateral prices of West Texas Intermediate futures and the US dollar to study the nature of oil‐dollar linkages. The empirical findings confirm a contagion effect between these two markets in the 1990 Gulf War, while flight‐to‐quality phenomena from oil to the US dollar are confirmed as a common feature for the 2008 and 2014 oil crashes, implicitly emphasizing the safe‐haven role of the US dollar during oil market turmoil. These results offer significant evidence for nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between the crude oil market and the US dollar market during all periods of oil crashes.

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  • Lei Ming & Yao Shen & Shenggang Yang & Minyi Dong, 2022. "Contagion or flight‐to‐quality? The linkage between oil price and the US dollar based on the local Gaussian approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 722-750, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:42:y:2022:i:4:p:722-750
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22307
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    Cited by:

    1. Kocaarslan, Baris, 2024. "US dollar and oil market uncertainty: New evidence from explainable machine learning," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Ming, Lei & Yang, Ping & Tian, Xinyi & Yang, Shenggang & Dong, Minyi, 2023. "Safe haven for crude oil: Gold or currencies?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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